Public track record
Fantasy scorecard
How our projections actually turned out. We publish it because a ranking is only worth trusting if it's checked. All scoring here is PPR.
Tested on five past seasons
The model as it runs today, replayed week by week over the 2021–2025 regular seasons using only what was known before each kickoff, then graded exactly the way the records below are. 19,813 projections across 85 weeks.
Average miss
5.26 pts
against 5.39 for the no-model guess, on the same 19,813 projections
Order score
0.48
against 0.46 for the guess. 1.00 would mean our ranking matched the results exactly
Start calls that held up
54%
against 52% ranking the same players by the guess, with the same cut-offs
Inside our typical range
58%
of scores. It's meant to hold about half, so our ranges run a little wide
Better than no model in every one of the five seasons, by a small margin.
The no-model guess is each player's average so far that season, or last season's rate before his first game. It's a harder benchmark than it sounds: most of what any projection knows is how much a player gets the ball, and his average already carries that. Over 2021–2025 we missed by 0.13 points a week less per player, ranked players better, and got a few more start calls right. The edge is clearest at QB and TE. At RB we did no better than the guess.
One week's fantasy score is mostly luck, so even a good projection misses by around five points on average. The margins that separate one method from another are small ones, and we'd rather show you ours than round it up.
Season by season
Ours / the guess's. Players with no designation on the official injury report (see below).
| Season | Projections | Avg miss | Order score | Start calls held |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3,828 | 5.38 / 5.50 | 0.48 / 0.45 | 53% / 51% |
| 2022 | 3,766 | 5.21 / 5.40 | 0.50 / 0.45 | 55% / 51% |
| 2023 | 3,776 | 5.11 / 5.23 | 0.49 / 0.47 | 54% / 52% |
| 2024 | 3,645 | 5.30 / 5.36 | 0.51 / 0.48 | 55% / 54% |
| 2025 | 3,799 | 5.28 / 5.38 | 0.48 / 0.46 | 52% / 52% |
By position
Same players, all five seasons together.
| Pos | Projections | Avg miss | Order score | Start calls held |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 2,441 | 6.26 / 6.48 | 0.42 / 0.34 | 55% / 53% |
| RB | 4,919 | 5.41 / 5.44 | 0.55 / 0.55 | 63% / 62% |
| WR | 7,718 | 5.36 / 5.48 | 0.52 / 0.51 | 48% / 46% |
| TE | 3,736 | 4.18 / 4.35 | 0.48 / 0.44 | 48% / 46% |
What makes it a fair test. None of the model's settings were fitted on these seasons, with one exception: the discounts for players listed as questionable or doubtful were measured on 2021–2025. So the tables use only players with no designation on the official injury report, where those discounts play no part; their average miss is 5.25 against 5.37, the same picture as everyone together.
Where the replay differs from the live model. Past weeks have no game-day injury report, so the NFL's official Friday report stands in, and players on injured reserve (who aren't on that report) were sometimes projected anyway. That makes the replay harder on us than live use. In the other direction, the betting lines are at or near the close, and wind is what was recorded on the day.
Players who didn't play. Like the records below, these grade the games a player actually played. Counting a zero for every top-40 player who logged nothing (2,129 of them, many on injured reserve for the reason above), the average miss is 5.79 against 5.85 for the guess.
Backtest: this season so far
Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4 re-projected using only what was known going into each week, then compared with what happened. It gives us a record from day one while the live one builds. It skips the injury report, since today's report reflects what happened in those games.
Starter calls that held up
53%
of 204 "Must start" and "Start" calls finished as starter-level
Bench calls avoided
81%
of 331 "Bench" calls finished outside starter level
Average miss
5.5 pts
620 projections. We ran 1.2 low on average
Inside our typical range
60%
of scores landed inside the range we showed. It is meant to hold about half, the middle of likely outcomes
Against no model at all
The simplest thing you could do instead of reading us is take each player's average so far this season — or last season's, before he has played. Over the same 599 projections that guess missed by 6.7 points a week. We missed by 5.6, and we were closer on 60% of them.
Both numbers are judged on exactly the same players and weeks, using only what was knowable before kickoff. We benchmark against this rather than another site because it needs nobody else's data to check — you can reproduce it yourself from public stats.
Did each verdict mean something?
Average projected vs average actual points for everyone we put in each tier. The tiers should step down.
By position
Order score: 1.00 means our ranking matched the results exactly, 0 means no better than guessing.
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Order score |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 95 | 7.0 | 0.27 |
| RB | 151 | 5.1 | 0.65 |
| WR | 267 | 5.3 | 0.45 |
| TE | 107 | 5.4 | 0.25 |
By week (average miss): Week 1 6.2 pts (200) · Week 2 5.1 pts (206) · Week 3 5.2 pts (201) · Week 4 5.9 pts (13)
Biggest busts (players we said to start)
- Jaxson Dart QB · NYG · Week 2 · called startproj 16.8 → 0.8
- Matthew Stafford QB · LA · Week 1 · called must startproj 19.9 → 4.1
- Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN · Week 1 · called must startproj 18.9 → 3.2
- David Montgomery RB · HOU · Week 2 · called must startproj 18.7 → 4.4
- DJ Moore WR · BUF · Week 2 · called must startproj 14.0 → -0.1
Biggest booms (scored far above projection)
- Davante Adams WR · LA · Week 2 · called startproj 12.8 → 39.5
- Jalen Coker WR · CAR · Week 1 · called benchproj 7.5 → 33.8
- Kenneth Walker III RB · KC · Week 1 · called flexproj 9.0 → 34.1
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA · Week 2 · called must startproj 18.1 → 42.5
- Isaiah Likely TE · NYG · Week 1 · called benchproj 4.2 → 27.8
Not counted: 45 ranked players who didn't record a stat (inactive or unused), since we can't grade a score that never happened.
Live record, building
Every projection is frozen in our database before kickoff and graded after the game. Nothing is edited or added afterwards, so this is the real track record.
Freezing started part-way through this season, so this record is still small — and it spans a change we made to the projection on 25 September 2026, which moved the model faster when a player's role changes. Weeks before that date were produced by the older version. We are leaving them in rather than quietly dropping the ones that flatter us less.
Graded so far: weeks 2, 3, 4. 679 more projections are waiting on games to finish.
Starter calls that held up
54%
of 83 "Must start" and "Start" calls finished as starter-level
Bench calls avoided
82%
of 192 "Bench" calls finished outside starter level
Average miss
5.3 pts
304 projections. We ran 0.6 low on average
Inside our typical range
53%
of scores landed inside the range we showed. It is meant to hold about half, the middle of likely outcomes
Against no model at all
The simplest thing you could do instead of reading us is take each player's average so far this season — or last season's, before he has played. Over the same 292 projections that guess missed by 6.1 points a week. We missed by 5.4, and we were closer on 58% of them.
Both numbers are judged on exactly the same players and weeks, using only what was knowable before kickoff. We benchmark against this rather than another site because it needs nobody else's data to check — you can reproduce it yourself from public stats.
Did each verdict mean something?
Average projected vs average actual points for everyone we put in each tier. The tiers should step down.
By position
Order score: 1.00 means our ranking matched the results exactly, 0 means no better than guessing.
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Order score |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 37 | 6.5 | 0.11 |
| RB | 78 | 5.0 | 0.78 |
| WR | 121 | 5.2 | 0.31 |
| TE | 68 | 5.4 | 0.39 |
By week (average miss): Week 2 6.7 pts (32) · Week 3 5.1 pts (259) · Week 4 5.9 pts (13)
Biggest busts (players we said to start)
- Jaxson Dart QB · NYG · Week 2 · called startproj 15.6 → 0.8
- Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET · Week 3 · called must startproj 24.6 → 11.9
- De'Von Achane RB · MIA · Week 3 · called startproj 13.7 → 1.7
- Jalen Coker WR · CAR · Week 3 · called must startproj 15.7 → 3.8
- Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF · Week 3 · called must startproj 14.4 → 3.8
Biggest booms (scored far above projection)
- Davante Adams WR · LA · Week 2 · called must startproj 13.7 → 39.5
- Kenyon Sadiq TE · NYJ · Week 3 · called benchproj 6.0 → 23.5
- Drake London WR · ATL · Week 3 · called startproj 11.6 → 28.4
- Bijan Robinson RB · ATL · Week 3 · called must startproj 19.0 → 35.3
- Michael Wilson WR · ARI · Week 3 · called flexproj 9.8 → 25.9
How to read this
"Held up" means a player we called Must start or Start finished as a starter-level performer at his position that week: top 12 for quarterbacks and tight ends, top 24 for running backs and receivers. "Bench calls avoided" is the mirror image.
Fantasy scoring is noisy. A good projection is not one that always hits the exact number, it's one whose tiers step down the way ours should and whose range holds most scores. Only players who recorded a stat are graded, and we only grade PPR.
Stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0). Projections are estimates, not guarantees.