31.5

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Tetairoa McMillan playing this week?

No injury designation

Tetairoa McMillan has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game against the Detroit Lions.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 8:20 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:39 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

Scoring:
PPRHalf PPRStandard
START#19 WR this weekHigh confidence

Start. DET's defense has allowed 20% more points to WRs than the league average.

Why we say start

  • Projected 8.7 points, #19 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
  • DET's defense has allowed 20% more points to WRs than the league average.
  • Concern: Scored 2.7 points last game against a typical 9.4 (trending down).
  • Averaging 7.7 targets a game.
  • Played 95% of the offense's snaps last game.

Projected points

8.7

Likely range 4–15: the middle half of outcomes

vs DET · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 9.4 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CAR underdogs by 3.5
Game total
50.5
DET vs WRs
20% more points
Last game snaps
95%

All week 4 wide receiver rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

23

Height

6'5"

Weight

220 lb

College

Arizona

Experience

1 season

Draft

2025 · Pick #8 (CAR)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 31.5?

His grade is low mainly because his expected points per target, adjusted for tougher-than-average defenses, ranked 43rd of 62 receivers. Success rate, win probability added and target share were all near average and didn't move it much. The sample is small: 23 targets over 3 games.

Holding it back

  • EPA per target was +0.056 expected points, 43rd of 62, even after credit for facing tougher defenses.
  • Week 1 vs CHI: a 21-yard catch on 1st and 10 ended in a fumble, costing 3.8 expected points.
  • Week 2 vs ATL: an incomplete pass on 4th and 2 cost 3.4 expected points.

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

-0.033

Success rate

43%

WPA (sum)

-0.04

Opponent adj.

0.091

Plays graded

23

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Separation
2.6
Cushion
5.2
YAC above exp
-0.1
YAC / rec
3.2
Expected YAC
3.3
Air yards share
28.3%
Intended air yds
13.5
Catch %
52.2%
WeekSeparationCushionYAC above exp
12.86.5-1.0
22.54.9+1.2
32.23.7-1.0
What do these mean?
Separation:
Average distance from the nearest defender at the moment of the catch.
Cushion:
Average distance from the nearest defender at the snap.
YAC above exp:
Yards after catch above what the situation would be expected to produce.
YAC / rec:
Average yards after the catch per reception.
Expected YAC:
Expected yards after the catch, based on tracking data.
Air yards share:
Share of the team's intended air yards that were thrown toward this player.
Intended air yds:
Average depth of the targets thrown his way.
Catch %:
Receptions divided by targets.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

TgtRecYdsTDFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games2312193029.318286%0%31.5

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameTgtRecYdsTDFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · CLE521703.77395%0%5.2
Wk 2 · ATL105101015.15380%0%65.9
Wk 1 · CHI8575010.55682%0%23.1