91.0

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Jahmyr Gibbs playing this week?

No injury designation

Jahmyr Gibbs has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game at the Carolina Panthers.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 8:20 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:37 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

Scoring:
PPRHalf PPRStandard
MUST START#1 RB this weekHigh confidence

Must start. Scored 37.9 points last game against a typical 17.3 (trending up).

Why we say must start

  • Projected 27.7 points, #1 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
  • Scored 37.9 points last game against a typical 17.3 (trending up).
  • CAR's defense has allowed 21% more points to RBs than the league average.
  • Averaging 21.7 carries and 7 targets a game.
  • Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.

Projected points

27.7

Likely range 13–45: the middle half of outcomes

@ CAR · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 17.3 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
DET favored by 3.5
Game total
50.5
CAR vs RBs
21% more points
Last game snaps
69%

All week 4 running back rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

24

Height

5'9"

Weight

200 lb

College

Alabama; Georgia Tech

Experience

3 seasons

Draft

2023 · Pick #12 (DET)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 91.0?

Gibbs' 88.4 grade is driven by strong efficiency on every touch, ranking near the top of the league in both expected points added per play and rushing success rate. He's produced explosive plays like touchdown runs and catches against Buffalo and the Jets, with only a modest and improving sample across three games so far.

Lifting the grade

  • EPA per touch of +0.094, ranking 7th of 61 backs
  • Rushing success rate of 51%, 7th of 61
  • 11-yard touchdown catch vs Bills in week 2, 11-yard touchdown catch vs Jets in week 3, 17-yard touchdown run vs Jets in week 3

Holding it back

  • 4-yard catch vs Saints in week 1 that was challenged and ruled down by contact, costing -5.2 expected points
  • No gain on a 4th and 1 run vs Jets in week 3, costing -3.5 expected points
  • -3 yard run vs Saints in week 1 on 3rd and 1, costing -2.8 expected points

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

-0.017

Success rate

51%

WPA (sum)

0.34

Opponent adj.

-0.009

Plays graded

86

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Rush yds over expected
+30.9
Yds over exp / att
+0.49
Carries over expected
0.4%
Expected rush yds
261.1
Efficiency
3.99
Vs 8+ in the box
15.4%
Time to line
2.83s
WeekRush yds over expectedYds over exp / attVs 8+ in the box
1+22.8+0.7920.7%
2-10.2-0.680.0%
3+18.2+0.9620.0%
What do these mean?
Rush yds over expected:
Rushing yards above what the blocking and defenders in each carry would be expected to produce.
Yds over exp / att:
Rush yards over expected per carry.
Carries over expected:
Share of carries that gained more than expected.
Expected rush yds:
Yards the carries would be expected to gain on average, based on tracking data.
Efficiency:
Distance traveled per yard gained. Lower means a more direct, north-south runner.
Vs 8+ in the box:
Share of carries against eight or more defenders near the line.
Time to line:
Average seconds from the handoff to reaching the line of scrimmage.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

CarRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDFum LostFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games653074181562098.315675%0%91.0

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameCarRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDFum LostFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · NYJ209927651041.44569%0%91.5
Wk 2 · BUF165206611023.35483%0%80.2
Wk 1 · NO2915625300033.65774%0%58.8