19.0

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is J.K. Dobbins playing this week?

No injury designation

Official practice report (week 4): Full practice, hip injury.

J.K. Dobbins has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game at the San Francisco 49ers.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:48 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

From the beat

What reporters are saying about him, last 3 days.

  • #Broncos OLB Dondrea Tillman is OUT with a hamstring injury. Everybody else — including WRs Jaylen Waddle and Marvin Mims and RB J.K. Dobbins — is off the injury report and good to play vs. San Francisco.

    Parker Gabriel @ParkerJGabriel · 1d ago · View on X

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Revenge gameFaces LAC, his team in 2024

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

Scoring:
PPRHalf PPRStandard
FLEX#26 RB this weekHigh confidence

Flex option. Projected 7.1 points, #26 among RBs this week.

Why we say flex

  • Projected 7.1 points, #26 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
  • Averaging 11.7 carries and 0.7 targets a game.
  • Played 49% of the offense's snaps last game.

Projected points

7.1

Likely range 3–12: the middle half of outcomes

@ SF · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 8.7 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
DEN underdogs by 3
Game total
47.5
SF vs RBs
2% more points
Last game snaps
49%

All week 4 running back rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

27

Height

5'10"

Weight

214 lb

College

Ohio State

Experience

6 seasons

Draft

2020 · Pick #55 (BAL)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 19.0?

Dobbins' grade is low because his carries haven't produced much: he loses expected points on a typical touch and keeps the offense on schedule on very few runs. Defenses he faced were slightly easier than average, so that doesn't explain it. This covers only 3 games and 37 touches, a small sample.

Holding it back

  • Rushing success rate (share of carries that kept the offense on schedule) is 26%, 49th of 51 backs.
  • EPA per touch is -0.195 expected points per play, 37th of 51.
  • Week 2 vs JAX, 3rd and 1: a left end run for -1 yards cost 2.6 expected points.

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

-0.180

Success rate

26%

WPA (sum)

-0.38

Opponent adj.

-0.014

Plays graded

37

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Rush yds over expected
-16.6
Yds over exp / att
-0.48
Carries over expected
0.3%
Expected rush yds
137.6
Efficiency
4.54
Vs 8+ in the box
14.3%
Time to line
3.07s
WeekRush yds over expectedYds over exp / attVs 8+ in the box
2+4.5+0.4530.0%
3-27.0-1.595.9%
What do these mean?
Rush yds over expected:
Rushing yards above what the blocking and defenders in each carry would be expected to produce.
Yds over exp / att:
Rush yards over expected per carry.
Carries over expected:
Share of carries that gained more than expected.
Expected rush yds:
Yards the carries would be expected to gain on average, based on tracking data.
Efficiency:
Distance traveled per yard gained. Lower means a more direct, north-south runner.
Vs 8+ in the box:
Share of carries against eight or more defenders near the line.
Time to line:
Average seconds from the handoff to reaching the line of scrimmage.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

CarRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDFum LostFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games351210140013.57642%0%19.0

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameCarRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDFum LostFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · LA1749014006.33349%0%34.9
Wk 2 · JAX1036000003.62134%0%23.6
Wk 1 · KC836000003.62243%0%23.7