RB#32

David Montgomery

Houston TexansHOUHouston Texans

21.0

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is David Montgomery playing this week?

No injury designation

David Montgomery has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game against the Dallas Cowboys.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:36 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

Scoring:
PPRHalf PPRStandard
START#19 RB this weekHigh confidence

Start. DAL's defense has allowed 16% more points to RBs than the league average.

Why we say start

  • Projected 8.8 points, #19 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
  • DAL's defense has allowed 16% more points to RBs than the league average.
  • HOU's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
  • Averaging 12.3 carries and 2.3 targets a game.
  • Played 63% of the offense's snaps last game.

Projected points

8.8

Likely range 4–14: the middle half of outcomes

vs DAL · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 7.5 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
HOU favored by 3
Game total
48.5
DAL vs RBs
16% more points
Last game snaps
63%

All week 4 running back rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

29

Height

5'11"

Weight

230 lb

College

Iowa State

Experience

7 seasons

Draft

2019 · Pick #73 (CHI)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 21.0?

Montgomery's grade is low because his carries and catches have cost Houston expected points, and fewer than a third of his runs kept the offense on schedule. A big week 1 against Buffalo was followed by two very poor games. This covers only 3 games, so it can move quickly.

Holding it back

  • EPA per touch is -0.220 expected points per play, 40th of 51 backs, and it pulled the grade down a lot.
  • Rushing success rate is 27%, 47th of 51. That is the share of carries that kept the offense on schedule.
  • Short-yardage runs hurt: in week 2 vs CIN he was stopped for -1 yards on 4th and 1 (-4.4 expected points), and in week 3 at IND he got no gain on 4th and 1 (-4.2).

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

-0.338

Success rate

27%

WPA (sum)

-0.07

Opponent adj.

-0.037

Plays graded

44

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Rush yds over expected
-14.4
Yds over exp / att
-0.39
Carries over expected
0.3%
Expected rush yds
117.4
Efficiency
5.04
Vs 8+ in the box
40.5%
Time to line
2.82s
WeekRush yds over expectedYds over exp / attVs 8+ in the box
1-8.3-0.4135.0%
3-1.1-0.1054.5%
What do these mean?
Rush yds over expected:
Rushing yards above what the blocking and defenders in each carry would be expected to produce.
Yds over exp / att:
Rush yards over expected per carry.
Carries over expected:
Share of carries that gained more than expected.
Expected rush yds:
Yards the carries would be expected to gain on average, based on tracking data.
Efficiency:
Distance traveled per yard gained. Lower means a more direct, north-south runner.
Vs 8+ in the box:
Share of carries against eight or more defenders near the line.
Time to line:
Average seconds from the handoff to reaching the line of scrimmage.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

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CarRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDFum LostFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games3710327481040.111555%0%21.0

Game log

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GameCarRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDFum LostFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · IND11330215006.83463%0%8.5
Wk 2 · CIN6100214004.44252%0%0.9
Wk 1 · BUF206023191028.93949%0%76.3