Fantasy · Week 4 · 2026

Win your week. Start the right players.

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

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Each position has its own page: QB rankings · RB rankings · WR rankings · TE rankings · Flex rankings · K rankings · D/ST rankings

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PPRHalf PPRStandard

Early season: only 3 weeks of 2026 data so far, so these projections lean on last season's numbers. Confidence is marked on every player and improves each week.

Defenses swing hard from week to week on sacks, takeaways and touchdowns, so most leagues stream them: pick the best matchup available rather than holding one all year. Scoring is the same in every format, so the scoring switch above doesn't change these.

  1. 1MINMINVikings D/ST▲D/ST · MINvsMIAMIAMUST STARTScored 17 last game, typical 7.111.77–15 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 7.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    MINMINvsMIAMIAMIAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    MIN favored by 10
    Game total
    38.5
    MIA offense
    35% more points to defenses

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 11.7 points, #1 among defenses this week, inside the top 4 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 17 points last game against a typical 7.1 (trending up).
    • MIA's offense has given defenses 35% more fantasy points than the league average.
    • Averaging 4.7 sacks and 2 takeaways a game.

    Projection 11.7 · High confidence · Team page →

  2. 2SEASEASeahawks D/ST▼D/ST · SEAvsLACLACMUST STARTLAC offense gives defenses 39% more points10.56–14 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 8.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    SEASEAvsLACLACLACGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    SEA favored by 7
    Game total
    42.5
    LAC offense
    39% more points to defenses

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 10.5 points, #2 among defenses this week, inside the top 4 we call must-starts.
    • LAC's offense has given defenses 39% more fantasy points than the league average.
    • LAC's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a good spot for the defense.
    • Concern: Scored 1 points last game against a typical 8.8 (trending down).
    • Averaging 2.3 sacks and 1.3 takeaways a game.

    Projection 10.5 · High confidence · Team page →

  3. 3PITPITSteelers D/STD/ST · PIT@CLECLEMUST STARTCLE offense gives defenses 45% more points6.0scored · proj 10.1

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 6.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    PITPIT@CLECLECLEGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    PIT favored by 2.5
    Game total
    38.5
    CLE offense
    45% more points to defenses
    Wind
    11 mph

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 10.1 points, #3 among defenses this week, inside the top 4 we call must-starts.
    • CLE's offense has given defenses 45% more fantasy points than the league average.
    • CLE's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a good spot for the defense.
    • Averaging 2.7 sacks and 2 takeaways a game.

    Projection 10.1 · High confidence · Team page →

  4. 4CHICHIBears D/ST▲D/ST · CHIvsNYJNYJMUST STARTScored 12 last game, typical 6.58.95–12 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    CHICHIvsNYJNYJNYJGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    CHI favored by 3.5
    Game total
    43.5
    NYJ offense
    24% more points to defenses
    Wind
    10 mph

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 8.9 points, #4 among defenses this week, inside the top 4 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 12 points last game against a typical 6.5 (trending up).
    • NYJ's offense has given defenses 24% more fantasy points than the league average.
    • Averaging 2.3 sacks and 2 takeaways a game.

    Projection 8.9 · High confidence · Team page →

  5. 5BALBALRavens D/STD/ST · BALvsTENTENSTARTTEN offense gives defenses 36% more points8.04–12 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 5.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    BALBALvsTENTENTENGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~27 pts
    Vegas line
    BAL favored by 11.5
    Game total
    42.5
    TEN offense
    36% more points to defenses

    Why we say start

    • Projected 8.0 points, #5 among defenses this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • TEN's offense has given defenses 36% more fantasy points than the league average.
    • TEN's offense is expected to score only about 16 points, a good spot for the defense.
    • Averaging 2 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.

    Projection 8.0 · High confidence · Team page →

  6. 6JAXJAXJaguars D/ST▲D/ST · JAX@CINCINSTARTCIN offense gives defenses 25% more points8.04–12 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 7.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    JAXJAX@CINCINCINGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    JAX underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    51.5
    CIN offense
    25% more points to defenses

    Why we say start

    • Projected 8.0 points, #6 among defenses this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • CIN's offense has given defenses 25% more fantasy points than the league average.
    • Scored 15 points last game against a typical 7.7 (trending up).
    • Concern: CIN's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a rough spot for the defense.
    • Averaging 2.3 sacks and 2 takeaways a game.

    Projection 8.0 · High confidence · Team page →

  7. 7KCKCChiefs D/STD/ST · KC@LVLVSTARTLV offense gives defenses 51% more points7.43–11 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 5.3 a game

    This week's matchup

    KCKC@LVLVLVGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~26 pts
    Vegas line
    KC favored by 4.5
    Game total
    47.5
    LV offense
    51% more points to defenses

    Why we say start

    • Projected 7.4 points, #7 among defenses this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • LV's offense has given defenses 51% more fantasy points than the league average.
    • Averaging 1 sacks and 1.7 takeaways a game.

    Projection 7.4 · High confidence · Team page →

  8. 8LALARams D/ST▼D/ST · LA@PHIPHISTARTPHI expected to score only ~20, a good spot7.23–11 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 7.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    LALA@PHIPHIPHIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    LA favored by 3.5
    Game total
    42.5
    PHI offense
    14% fewer points to defenses
    Wind
    10 mph

    Why we say start

    • Projected 7.2 points, #8 among defenses this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • PHI's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a good spot for the defense.
    • Concern: Scored 2 points last game against a typical 7.4 (trending down).
    • Averaging 1 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.

    Projection 7.2 · High confidence · Team page →

  9. 9NONOSaints D/ST▼D/ST · NOvsATLATLSTARTATL offense gives defenses 46% more points6.83–10 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 6.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    NONOvsATLATLATLGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    NO favored by 2.5
    Game total
    47.5
    ATL offense
    46% more points to defenses

    Why we say start

    • Projected 6.8 points, #9 among defenses this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • ATL's offense has given defenses 46% more fantasy points than the league average.
    • Concern: Scored 1 points last game against a typical 6.1 (trending down).
    • Averaging 2.3 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.

    Projection 6.8 · High confidence · Team page →

  10. 10CLECLEBrowns D/STD/ST · CLEvsPITPITSTARTProjected 6.5 · #10 among defenses9.0scored · proj 6.5

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 7.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    CLECLEvsPITPITPITGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~18 pts
    Vegas line
    CLE underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    38.5
    PIT offense
    5% fewer points to defenses
    Wind
    11 mph

    Why we say start

    • Projected 6.5 points, #10 among defenses this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Averaging 2.3 sacks and 0.7 takeaways a game.

    Projection 6.5 · High confidence · Team page →

  11. 11BUFBUFBills D/STD/ST · BUFvsNENESTARTBUF favored by 7, NE may take risks6.52–10 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 6.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    BUFBUFvsNENENEGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    BUF favored by 7
    Game total
    49.5
    NE offense
    13% more points to defenses

    Why we say start

    • Projected 6.5 points, #11 among defenses this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • BUF is favored by 7, so NE may have to take risks, which is good for sacks and takeaways.
    • Averaging 3 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.

    Projection 6.5 · High confidence · Team page →

  12. 12DENDENBroncos D/ST▲D/ST · DEN@SFSFSTARTScored 14 last game, typical 7.96.32–10 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 7.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    DENDEN@SFSFSFGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    DEN underdogs by 3
    Game total
    47.5
    SF offense
    43% fewer points to defenses

    Why we say start

    • Projected 6.3 points, #12 among defenses this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 14 points last game against a typical 7.9 (trending up).
    • Concern: SF's offense has given defenses 43% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
    • Averaging 2.7 sacks and 1.3 takeaways a game.

    Projection 6.3 · High confidence · Team page →

  13. 13HOUHOUTexans D/STD/ST · HOUvsDALDALFLEXProjected 6.0 · #13 among defenses6.02–10 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 8.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    HOUHOUvsDALDALDALGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~26 pts
    Vegas line
    HOU favored by 3
    Game total
    48.5
    DAL offense
    49% fewer points to defenses
    Wind
    10 mph

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 6.0 points, #13 among defenses this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
    • Concern: DAL's offense has given defenses 49% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
    • Averaging 3.7 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.

    Projection 6.0 · High confidence · Team page →

  14. 14ATLATLFalcons D/STD/ST · ATL@NONOFLEXNO offense gives defenses 40% more points6.02–10 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 6.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    ATLATL@NONONOGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    ATL underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    47.5
    NO offense
    40% more points to defenses

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 6.0 points, #14 among defenses this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
    • NO's offense has given defenses 40% more fantasy points than the league average.
    • Concern: NO's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a rough spot for the defense.
    • Averaging 1.7 sacks and 0.7 takeaways a game.

    Projection 6.0 · High confidence · Team page →

  15. 15GBGBPackers D/ST▼D/ST · GB@TBTBFLEXTB offense gives defenses 28% more points5.82–9 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 4.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    GBGB@TBTBTBGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    GB favored by 3
    Game total
    38.5
    TB offense
    28% more points to defenses

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 5.8 points, #15 among defenses this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
    • TB's offense has given defenses 28% more fantasy points than the league average.
    • TB's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a good spot for the defense.
    • Concern: Scored -2 points last game against a typical 4.9 (trending down).
    • Averaging 2.3 sacks and 0.7 takeaways a game.

    Projection 5.8 · High confidence · Team page →

  16. 16LACLACChargers D/ST▲D/ST · LAC@SEASEAFLEXScored 14 last game, typical 6.35.31–9 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 6.3 a game

    This week's matchup

    LACLAC@SEASEASEAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~18 pts
    Vegas line
    LAC underdogs by 7
    Game total
    42.5
    SEA offense
    16% fewer points to defenses

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 5.3 points, #16 among defenses this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
    • Scored 14 points last game against a typical 6.3 (trending up).
    • Concern: SEA's offense has given defenses 16% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
    • Averaging 2.3 sacks and 2 takeaways a game.

    Projection 5.3 · High confidence · Team page →

  17. 17DETDETLions D/STD/ST · DET@CARCARBENCHProjected 5.1 · 0.2 behind #165.11–9 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 5.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    DETDET@CARCARCARGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~27 pts
    Vegas line
    DET favored by 3.5
    Game total
    50.5
    CAR offense
    3% more points to defenses

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 5.1 points, #17 among defenses this week, 0.2 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
    • Averaging 4 sacks and 1.3 takeaways a game.

    Projection 5.1 · High confidence · Team page →

  18. 18TBTBBuccaneers D/STD/ST · TBvsGBGBBENCHGB offense gives defenses 20% fewer points5.01–9 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 5.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    TBTBvsGBGBGBGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~18 pts
    Vegas line
    TB underdogs by 3
    Game total
    38.5
    GB offense
    20% fewer points to defenses

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 5.0 points, #18 among defenses this week, 0.3 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
    • GB's offense has given defenses 20% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
    • Averaging 2 sacks and 0.7 takeaways a game.

    Projection 5.0 · High confidence · Team page →

  19. 19CARCARPanthers D/STD/ST · CARvsDETDETBENCHDET offense gives defenses 42% fewer points4.81–8 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 6.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    CARCARvsDETDETDETGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    CAR underdogs by 3.5
    Game total
    50.5
    DET offense
    42% fewer points to defenses

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 4.8 points, #19 among defenses this week, 0.5 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
    • DET's offense has given defenses 42% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
    • DET's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a rough spot for the defense.
    • Averaging 2 sacks and 2.3 takeaways a game.

    Projection 4.8 · High confidence · Team page →

  20. 20NYGNYGGiants D/STD/ST · NYGvsARIARIBENCHProjected 4.5 · 0.8 behind #164.50–8 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 4.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    NYGNYGvsARIARIARIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    NYG underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    44.5
    ARI offense
    League average

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 4.5 points, #20 among defenses this week, 0.8 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
    • Averaging 0.3 sacks and 1.7 takeaways a game.

    Projection 4.5 · High confidence · Team page →

  21. 21PHIPHIEagles D/ST▼D/ST · PHIvsLALABENCHScored 0 last game, typical 7.54.50–8 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 7.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    PHIPHIvsLALALAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    PHI underdogs by 3.5
    Game total
    42.5
    LA offense
    18% fewer points to defenses
    Wind
    10 mph

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 4.5 points, #21 among defenses this week, 0.8 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
    • Scored 0 points last game against a typical 7.5 (trending down).
    • LA's offense has given defenses 18% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
    • Averaging 1 sacks and 0 takeaways a game.

    Projection 4.5 · High confidence · Team page →

  22. 22INDINDColts D/STD/ST · IND@WASWASBENCHProjected 4.4 · 0.9 behind #164.40–8 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 5.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    INDIND@WASWASWASGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~26 pts
    Vegas line
    IND favored by 4.5
    Game total
    46.5
    WAS offense
    14% fewer points to defenses

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 4.4 points, #22 among defenses this week, 0.9 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
    • Averaging 2.3 sacks and 0.3 takeaways a game.

    Projection 4.4 · High confidence · Team page →

  23. 23SFSF49ers D/STD/ST · SFvsDENDENBENCHDEN offense gives defenses 27% fewer points4.20–8 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 4.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    SFSFvsDENDENDENGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    SF favored by 3
    Game total
    47.5
    DEN offense
    27% fewer points to defenses

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 4.2 points, #23 among defenses this week, 1.1 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
    • DEN's offense has given defenses 27% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
    • Averaging 2 sacks and 0.7 takeaways a game.

    Projection 4.2 · High confidence · Team page →

  24. 24LVLVRaiders D/ST▲D/ST · LVvsKCKCBENCHKC offense gives defenses 18% fewer points4.10–8 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 4.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    LVLVvsKCKCKCGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    LV underdogs by 4.5
    Game total
    47.5
    KC offense
    18% fewer points to defenses

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 4.1 points, #24 among defenses this week, 1.2 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
    • KC's offense has given defenses 18% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
    • KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a rough spot for the defense.
    • Upside: Scored 12 points last game against a typical 4.7 (trending up).
    • Averaging 3.3 sacks and 3 takeaways a game.

    Projection 4.1 · High confidence · Team page →

  25. 25ARIARICardinals D/ST▼D/ST · ARI@NYGNYGBENCHScored -2 last game, typical 44.00–8 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 4.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    ARIARI@NYGNYGNYGGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    ARI favored by 2.5
    Game total
    44.5
    NYG offense
    8% more points to defenses

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 4.0 points, #25 among defenses this week, outside the top 16.
    • Scored -2 points last game against a typical 4 (trending down).
    • Averaging 1.3 sacks and 1.3 takeaways a game.

    Projection 4.0 · High confidence · Team page →

  26. 26CINCINBengals D/STD/ST · CINvsJAXJAXBENCHJAX offense gives defenses 42% fewer points3.90–7 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 4.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    CINCINvsJAXJAXJAXGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~27 pts
    Vegas line
    CIN favored by 2.5
    Game total
    51.5
    JAX offense
    42% fewer points to defenses

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 3.9 points, #26 among defenses this week, outside the top 16.
    • JAX's offense has given defenses 42% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
    • Averaging 3.3 sacks and 1.7 takeaways a game.

    Projection 3.9 · High confidence · Team page →

  27. 27NENEPatriots D/ST▼D/ST · NE@BUFBUFBENCHBUF offense gives defenses 39% fewer points3.80–7 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 6.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    NENE@BUFBUFBUFGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    NE underdogs by 7
    Game total
    49.5
    BUF offense
    39% fewer points to defenses

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 3.8 points, #27 among defenses this week, outside the top 16.
    • BUF's offense has given defenses 39% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
    • BUF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a rough spot for the defense.
    • Averaging 2.3 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.

    Projection 3.8 · High confidence · Team page →

  28. 28MIAMIADolphins D/STD/ST · MIA@MINMINBENCHProjected 3.6 · #28 among defenses3.60–7 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 5.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    MIAMIA@MINMINMINGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~14 pts
    Vegas line
    MIA underdogs by 10
    Game total
    38.5
    MIN offense
    37% more points to defenses

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 3.6 points, #28 among defenses this week, outside the top 16.
    • Upside: MIN's offense has given defenses 37% more fantasy points than the league average.
    • Averaging 0 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.

    Projection 3.6 · High confidence · Team page →

  29. 29WASWASCommanders D/ST▲D/ST · WASvsINDINDBENCHIND offense gives defenses 24% fewer points2.90–6 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 4.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    WASWASvsINDINDINDGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    WAS underdogs by 4.5
    Game total
    46.5
    IND offense
    24% fewer points to defenses

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 2.9 points, #29 among defenses this week, outside the top 16.
    • IND's offense has given defenses 24% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
    • IND's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a rough spot for the defense.
    • Upside: Scored 11 points last game against a typical 4.8 (trending up).
    • Averaging 1.7 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.

    Projection 2.9 · High confidence · Team page →

  30. 30TENTENTitans D/STD/ST · TEN@BALBALBENCHBAL offense gives defenses 24% fewer points2.80–6 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 4.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    TENTEN@BALBALBALGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~16 pts
    Vegas line
    TEN underdogs by 11.5
    Game total
    42.5
    BAL offense
    24% fewer points to defenses

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 2.8 points, #30 among defenses this week, outside the top 16.
    • BAL's offense has given defenses 24% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
    • BAL's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a rough spot for the defense.
    • Averaging 2 sacks and 0.7 takeaways a game.

    Projection 2.8 · High confidence · Team page →

  31. 31NYJNYJJets D/STD/ST · NYJ@CHICHIBENCHCHI offense gives defenses 39% fewer points2.30–6 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 3.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    NYJNYJ@CHICHICHIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    NYJ underdogs by 3.5
    Game total
    43.5
    CHI offense
    39% fewer points to defenses
    Wind
    10 mph

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 2.3 points, #31 among defenses this week, outside the top 16.
    • CHI's offense has given defenses 39% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
    • Averaging 2.7 sacks and 0.7 takeaways a game.

    Projection 2.3 · High confidence · Team page →

  32. 32DALDALCowboys D/ST▼D/ST · DAL@HOUHOUBENCHScored -1 last game, typical 3.91.50–5 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 3.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    DALDAL@HOUHOUHOUGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    DAL underdogs by 3
    Game total
    48.5
    HOU offense
    19% fewer points to defenses
    Wind
    10 mph

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 1.5 points, #32 among defenses this week, outside the top 16.
    • Scored -1 points last game against a typical 3.9 (trending down).
    • HOU's offense has given defenses 19% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
    • Averaging 0.7 sacks and 0.7 takeaways a game.

    Projection 1.5 · High confidence · Team page →

How we rank

Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.

We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.

The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.

Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.