Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
Josh Downs or Mike Evans?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (8.3 vs 8.1). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Josh Downs (51%).
Josh Downs outscores Mike Evans 51% of the time; Mike Evans 49%.
WR, IND at PIT
8.3 projected PPR points
Likely range 3–14 · WR34 this week · Flex
Flex option. Projected 8.3 points, #34 among WRs this week.
WR, SF at SEA
8.1 projected PPR points
Likely range 3–14 · WR36 this week · Flex
Flex option. Scored 12.6 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending up).
Side by side
| Josh Downs | Mike Evans | |
|---|---|---|
| 8.3 | Projected points | 8.1 |
| 3.3 | Floor (a bad day) | 3.2 |
| 14.3 | Ceiling (a big day) | 13.9 |
| PIT +6% | Matchup | SEA -21% |
| ~20 pts | Team's expected score | ~21 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Steady | Recent form | Hot ▲ |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.