Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
David Montgomery or Tony Pollard?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (9.0 vs 8.8). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean David Montgomery (51%).
David Montgomery outscores Tony Pollard 51% of the time; Tony Pollard 49%.
RB, HOU at TEN
9.0 projected PPR points
Likely range 4–15 · RB22 this week · Flex
Flex option. Projected 9.0 points, #22 among RBs this week.
RB, TEN vs HOU
8.8 projected PPR points
Likely range 4–14 · RB24 this week · Flex
Flex option. Projected 8.8 points, #24 among RBs this week.
Side by side
| David Montgomery | Tony Pollard | |
|---|---|---|
| 9.0 | Projected points | 8.8 |
| 4.3 | Floor (a bad day) | 4.2 |
| 14.6 | Ceiling (a big day) | 14.3 |
| TEN -3% | Matchup | HOU -12% |
| ~23 pts | Team's expected score | ~16 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Cold ▼ | Recent form | Steady |
| High | Our confidence | High |
They play in the same game, so their scores tend to rise and fall together. The probability above treats them as independent.
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.