Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
David Montgomery or Ollie Gordon II?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (9.0 vs 9.5). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Ollie Gordon II (52%).
David Montgomery outscores Ollie Gordon II 48% of the time; Ollie Gordon II 52%.
RB, HOU at TEN
9.0 projected PPR points
Likely range 4–15 · RB22 this week · Flex
Flex option. Projected 9.0 points, #22 among RBs this week.
RB, MIA vs CIN
9.5 projected PPR points
Likely range 5–15 · RB20 this week · Start
Start. Scored 18 points last game against a typical 2.8 (trending up).
Side by side
| David Montgomery | Ollie Gordon II | |
|---|---|---|
| 9.0 | Projected points | 9.5 |
| 4.3 | Floor (a bad day) | 4.6 |
| 14.6 | Ceiling (a big day) | 15.4 |
| TEN -3% | Matchup | CIN +16% |
| ~23 pts | Team's expected score | ~18 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Cold ▼ | Recent form | Hot ▲ |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.