Fantasy · Week 9 · Start or sit
Dalton Kincaid Or T.J. Hockenson?
Our week 9 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (8.9 vs 8.1). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Dalton Kincaid (53%).
Dalton Kincaid outscores T.J. Hockenson 53% of the time; T.J. Hockenson 47%.
TE, BUF at MIN
8.9 projected PPR points
Likely range 3–16 · TE10 this week · Start
Start. Scored 18.6 points last game against a typical 9 (trending up).
TE, MIN vs BUF
8.1 projected PPR points
Likely range 3–14 · TE12 this week · Start
Start. Scored 15.8 points last game against a typical 6.6 (trending up).
Side by side
| Dalton Kincaid | T.J. Hockenson | |
|---|---|---|
| 8.9 | Projected points | 8.1 |
| 3.2 | Floor (a bad day) | 2.9 |
| 15.7 | Ceiling (a big day) | 14.3 |
| MIN -34% | Matchup | BUF -22% |
| ~25 pts | Team's expected score | ~21 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Hot ▲ | Recent form | Hot ▲ |
| High | Our confidence | High |
They play in the same game, so their scores tend to rise and fall together. The probability above treats them as independent.
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.