Fantasy · Week 7 · Start or sit
Bo Nix Or Patrick Mahomes?
Our week 7 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (12.5 vs 13.0). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Patrick Mahomes (51%).
Bo Nix outscores Patrick Mahomes 49% of the time; Patrick Mahomes 51%.
QB, DEN at ARI
12.5 projected PPR points
Likely range 7–20 · QB20 this week · Bench
Bench. Scored 4.5 points last game against a typical 16 (trending down).
QB, KC at SEA
13.0 projected PPR points
Likely range 7–21 · QB19 this week · Bench
Bench. SEA's defense has allowed 23% fewer points to QBs than the league average.
Side by side
| Bo Nix | Patrick Mahomes | |
|---|---|---|
| 12.5 | Projected points | 13.0 |
| 6.5 | Floor (a bad day) | 6.8 |
| 19.7 | Ceiling (a big day) | 20.5 |
| ARI +15% | Matchup | SEA -23% |
| ~24 pts | Team's expected score | ~20 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Cold ▼ | Recent form | Cold ▼ |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.