Fantasy · Week 9 · Start or sit
Aaron Jones Or Dylan Sampson?
Our week 9 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (7.2 vs 6.7). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Aaron Jones (52%).
Aaron Jones outscores Dylan Sampson 52% of the time; Dylan Sampson 48%.
RB, MIN vs BUF
7.2 projected PPR points
Likely range 4–12 · RB30 this week · Flex
Flex option. BUF's defense has allowed 14% more points to RBs than the league average.
RB, CLE at NO
6.7 projected PPR points
Likely range 3–11 · RB31 this week · Flex
Flex option. Scored 12.9 points last game against a typical 5.2 (trending up).
Side by side
| Aaron Jones | Dylan Sampson | |
|---|---|---|
| 7.2 | Projected points | 6.7 |
| 3.5 | Floor (a bad day) | 3.2 |
| 11.7 | Ceiling (a big day) | 10.9 |
| BUF +14% | Matchup | NO +14% |
| ~21 pts | Team's expected score | ~20 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Steady | Recent form | Hot ▲ |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.