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2026 · Written the day the news breaks

Injury ripples

When a starter is ruled out, the question is who gets his work. For every starter with a real role, we look up how his teammates were used the last time he missed games, what the betting line has done, and who goes up. Claude writes it from our game logs, and every number is checked against them before it goes up.

Week 4

Newest first. A note appears within about an hour of a starter being ruled out, and is rewritten if Doubtful becomes Out.

OutKeenan AllenWR · IND · Week 4

Keenan Allen out for Colts in Week 4; no games without him to compare

Keenan Allen is out for Indianapolis' Week 4 game against Washington, and there are no games without him in the last two seasons to compare. He has taken 6.7 targets (21% of the team's targets) per game over 3 games this season, so we can only show the work he leaves behind.

  • Allen's work this season: 6.7 targets per game (21% of the team's targets), 4.3 catches and 9.7 PPR points, on the field for 64% of snaps over 3 games.
  • Next-biggest target shares now: Josh Downs at 26% and Tyler Warren at 23%, both ahead of Allen's 21%. Jonathan Taylor has 12% and Alec Pierce 12%.
  • Pierce is on injured reserve with a heel injury, so he is not available to absorb Allen's work. Ashton Dulin (WR) is listed questionable with an ankle injury.
  • Per @AdamSchefter, the Colts downgraded Allen to out for Sunday's game in London against the Commanders due to his groin injury.

The line: Indianapolis is favored by 4, up from 3.5 at the open, a move of 0.5 toward the Colts. The total is 47.5, up from 47 at the open.

Headlines it read (3)

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Sat 11:02 AM ETAsk about itThe game

DoubtfulTerry McLaurinWR · WAS · Week 4

Terry McLaurin doubtful: Jaylin Lane the one teammate with a clear lift

Terry McLaurin is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury, and the only teammate whose past numbers show a clear rise without him is Jaylin Lane. The comparison is muddied because the games McLaurin missed came in 2025 with two different quarterbacks.

  • McLaurin missed 7 games with Washington, all in 2025 (weeks 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11): 4 with Jayden Daniels and 3 with Marcus Mariota. Mariota was the quarterback in the latest game, and Daniels is listed out this week with an elbow injury.
  • Lane averaged 2.9 targets (11% of the team's targets), 1.7 catches and 4.9 PPR points in those 7 games, against 1.3 targets (5%), 0.5 catches and 2 PPR points in the 11 games with McLaurin. That is a decent sample, but it comes from last season.
  • McLaurin is taking 7.3 targets per game (24% of the team's targets) this season. Stefon Diggs has the same 7.3 targets (24%), and Antonio Williams has 3.7 (12%), but neither has a split to show how he fares without McLaurin.
  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt, John Bates and Colson Yankoff showed no clear change without McLaurin. Treylon Burks has only 2 games without him, a small sample, so it proves nothing. Rachaad White is out with a shoulder injury.

Fantasy ripple

  • ↑Jaylin Lane WR · 2.9 targets and 4.9 PPR points per game in 7 games without McLaurin in 2025, up from 1.3 targets and 2 PPR points in 11 games with him. Those games had Daniels or Mariota at quarterback.

The line: Indianapolis is favored by 4, after opening at 3.5, a move of 0.5 toward the Colts. The total is 47.5, up 0.5 from the 47 open.

Headlines it read (6)

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Sat 11:02 AM ETAsk about itThe game

OutJadarian PriceRB · SEA · Week 4

Jadarian Price out for Seattle; no games without him to compare

Jadarian Price is out with a chest injury, and Seattle has no games from the last two seasons without him to compare. He had 9.3 carries a game, 35% of the team's carries, this season over 3 games.

  • Price's work this season: 9.3 carries (35% of the team's carries) and 2.3 targets (7% of the team's targets) per game, on the field for 37% of snaps.
  • Among teammates, Emanuel Wilson has the next-biggest carry share at 40%, and George Holani has 19%.
  • Holani is questionable with a rib injury, which clouds how the backfield carries are split.
  • Per @BradyHenderson, Holani and Wilson are the next options in Seattle's backfield.

The line: Seattle opened as a 6.5-point favorite and is now favored by 7, a move of 0.5 toward Seattle. The total opened at 43.5 and is now 43, down 0.5.

Headlines it read (5)

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Fri 5:02 PM ETAsk about itThe game

OutDeVonta SmithWR · PHI · Week 4

DeVonta Smith out: Eagles lose their top target share vs. Rams

DeVonta Smith is out for week 4, and there are no past games without him to compare. He leaves behind 9 targets per game (33% of the team's targets) this season, and Dallas Goedert is also out.

  • Smith has played 3 games this season and 17 last season, with no games missed in the last two seasons, so our data has no with-and-without split for his teammates.
  • Of the teammates listed, Dontayvion Wicks has the next-biggest share this season at 5 targets per game (19% of the team's targets) over 3 games.
  • Goedert, who had 3.5 targets per game (13% of the team's targets) over 2 games, is also out, so that share is gone too.
  • Per @AdamSchefter, the Eagles ruled Smith out for Sunday's game against the Rams because of his hamstring injury.

The line: LA favored by 3.5 now, up from LA favored by 2.5 at open, a move of 1 toward LA. The total is 43 now, down from 46 at open (down 3).

Headlines it read (6)

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Fri 4:12 PM ETAsk about itThe game

OutJustin JeffersonWR · MIN · Week 4

Justin Jefferson out: no games without him to compare, his target share is open

Justin Jefferson is out for Week 4, and there are no games without him in the last two seasons to compare, so we can't show how teammates were used in his absence. He leaves behind 5.7 targets per game (25% of the team's targets) this season, and Jordan Addison has the next-biggest share at 24%.

  • Jefferson's role this season over 3 games: 5.7 targets (25% of the team's targets), 4.3 catches, 15 PPR points, and 68% of snaps. Last season over 17 games: 8.3 targets (30%).
  • Addison is next in line at 5.3 targets per game (24% of the team's targets) over 3 games, followed by T.J. Hockenson at 4.3 targets (19%).
  • Josh Oliver is on injured reserve with a biceps injury, and Jordan Mason is also on injured reserve, so both are unavailable.
  • Per @RapSheet, Jefferson has been ruled out, giving him this week and the bye to recover. Kyler Murray was the quarterback in the latest game.

The line: MIN is favored by 10.5. The total has moved from 42.5 at open to 38.5 now (down 4).

Headlines it read (6)

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Fri 2:42 PM ETAsk about itThe game

OutBreece HallRB · NYJ · Week 4

Breece Hall out: Jets lose 60% of carries share, no real sample without him

The Jets are without Breece Hall against the Bears, and StatGrades has only 1 game without him (2025 week 18), so the splits can't show who benefits. The work he leaves behind is large: 17 carries per game this season, 60% of the team's carries.

  • Hall has averaged 17 carries (60% of the team's carries) and 3.3 targets (11% of the team's targets) per game in 3 games this season.
  • The only game he missed with the Jets was 2025 week 18, with Brady Cook at quarterback. Geno Smith is the quarterback now, so that game is a poor comparison and a 1-game sample proves nothing.
  • Braelon Allen has the next-biggest rushing share this season at 6.3 carries per game (22% of the team's carries). Per thejetpress.com, Isaiah Davis is taking on a bigger role after the injury, though our data has no numbers for him.
  • Adonai Mitchell is also out with a finger injury, per the reports from @RapSheet and @AdamSchefter, which removes a 25% target share from the passing game. Per nydailynews.com, the Jets should let Geno Smith and the passing attack fly.

The line: CHI is favored by 3, down from 3.5 at the open, a move of 0.5 toward NYJ. The total is 43.

Headlines it read (6)

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Fri 11:12 AM ETAsk about itThe game

OutTravis EtienneRB · NO · Week 4

Travis Etienne Out for Saints, No Clear Backfield Leader Yet

Travis Etienne (hamstring) is out for New Orleans, but there's no track record to lean on since he hasn't missed a game with this team in the last two seasons. Without a with-and-without split, the read is limited to what he was doing and who else has carries.

  • Etienne had been on the field for 56% of snaps this season, handling 10 carries (38% of the team's carries) and 4.3 targets (10% of the team's targets) per game over 3 games.
  • There are no games without him to compare, so no with-and-without split exists for any teammate.
  • Of the backs left, Alvin Kamara has the bigger current carry share at 9 carries (33% of the team's carries) over his 2 games, ahead of Kendre Miller's 6.5 carries (25% of the team's carries) over 2 games.
  • Tyler Shough was the team's quarterback in the latest game.

The line: NO was favored by 3.5 at open and is favored by 2.5 now, a move of 1 point toward Atlanta; the total opened at 45.5 and is now 48.5, up 3.

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Mon 4:12 PM ETAsk about itThe game

OutBaker MayfieldQB · TB · Week 4

Mayfield out for Bucs; Daniels set to start behind him

Baker Mayfield is out with a thumb injury, and the Buccaneers have no games without him over the last two seasons to show how the offense shifts. Jalon Daniels is expected to start, per @rapsheet.bsky.social, though he's thrown just 3 pass attempts in his lone game this season.

  • Mayfield had been on the field for 100% of snaps and averaging 32 pass attempts per game this season (16 PPR points per game and 97% of snaps last season with Tampa Bay).
  • No prior games missed with this team in the last two seasons means there's no with-and-without split to lean on for how teammates' usage changes.
  • Backup options: Jalon Daniels has just 1 game with 3 pass attempts, 1 carry and -1.1 PPR points; Easton Stick hasn't played this season and neither quarterback has a game with 10+ attempts over the last two seasons.
  • Per @rapsheet.bsky.social, Mayfield is still expected to miss time and will need to be able to grip a ball; the MRI showed no fracture and no ligament or tendon damage.

The line: GB opened favored by 1.5 and is now favored by 3.5 (moved 2 points toward GB); the total opened at 46 and is now 39.5, down 6.5.

Headlines it read (6)

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Mon 1:12 PM ETAsk about itThe game

OutDe'Von AchaneRB · MIA · Week 4

De'Von Achane out with knee injury, leaving big role vacant for Dolphins

De'Von Achane is out with a knee (ACL) injury after handling 11.3 carries (44% of the team's carries), 4 targets (14% of the team's targets) and 81% of snaps per game this season. The only game he's missed with Miami came in 2025 week 18, a single-game sample that's too small to draw conclusions from, and Quinn Ewers was the quarterback that day rather than Malik Willis, who played the latest game.

  • This season Achane averaged 11.3 carries (44% of team carries), 4 targets (14% of team targets) and 8.2 PPR points per game across 3 games, on the field for 81% of snaps.
  • Last season with Miami he averaged 14.9 carries (58% of team carries), 5.3 targets (19% of team targets) and 20.2 PPR points over 16 games, on the field for 75% of snaps.
  • The lone game he's missed with this team, 2025 week 18, featured Quinn Ewers at quarterback instead of Malik Willis, who started the latest game — a small sample and a different passer, so it doesn't clarify what changes.
  • Teammates Caleb Douglas and Jaylen Wright are each also listed as out this week (ankle and foot injuries, respectively), and none of the tracked teammates showed a clear 'up' or 'down' change in the splits — all were flagged as too few games to say.

The line: Minnesota is favored by 10 now, down slightly from 10.25 at open; the total has moved from 42.75 at open to 39.5 now.

Headlines it read (6)

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Mon 11:12 AM ETAsk about itThe game

OutCaleb DouglasWR · MIA · Week 4

Caleb Douglas out again for Dolphins with ankle injury

Caleb Douglas is out with an ankle injury, marking the second time this season he's missed a game. All the with/without splits for his teammates come from just one game without him (2026 week 3), so none of them are reliable signals yet.

  • Douglas played 89% of snaps and drew 20% of the team's targets across his 2 games this season before this injury.
  • Every teammate split without Douglas is based on only 1 game (2026 week 3), which every teammate's data flags as too few games to say anything conclusive.
  • De'Von Achane, who would normally see a bump in Douglas's absence, is himself doubtful with a knee injury this week.
  • Malik Willis was the quarterback in the one game Douglas missed, and he remains the team's quarterback now, so that part of the comparison isn't muddied.

The line: The total has dropped from 42.75 at open to 39.5 now, and Minnesota's spread has tightened slightly from favored by 10.25 at open to favored by 10 now.

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Mon 8:13 AM ETAsk about itThe game

OutAdonai MitchellWR · NYJ · Week 4

Mitchell Out: Garrett Wilson Could See More Work, Allen and Williams Dip

With Adonai Mitchell out for the New York Jets, Garrett Wilson has drawn more targets in games missed by Mitchell, while Braelon Allen and Isaiah Williams have seen smaller shares. Note that most of those missed games came with Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor at quarterback rather than Geno Smith, who started the Jets' latest game.

  • Wilson's target share jumped to 9 targets (34% of the team's targets) and 15.8 PPR points without Mitchell over 8 games (2025 weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10; 2026 week 3), up from 7 targets (24%) and 15.3 points with him — but 6 of Mitchell's 10 missed games were started by Justin Fields and 3 by Tyrod Taylor, not Geno Smith, who's now under center.
  • Braelon Allen's workload shrank without Mitchell — 4.4 carries (17% of the team's carries) and 4 PPR points over 5 games (2025 weeks 1-4; 2026 week 3), down from 7.5 carries (23%) and 6.3 points with him.
  • Isaiah Williams also saw less action without Mitchell — 1.8 targets (7%) and 4.8 PPR points over 4 games (2025 weeks 4, 8, 10; 2026 week 3), down from 3.8 targets (13%) and 5.7 points with him.
  • Tight end Mason Taylor is also out (thumb injury) this week, and his own with/without splits show no clear change tied to Mitchell's absence.

Fantasy ripple

  • ↑Garrett Wilson WR · More targets and snaps in games Mitchell has missed, though QB usage differs from now.
  • ↓Braelon Allen RB · Fewer carries and PPR points in games without Mitchell.
  • ↓Isaiah Williams WR · Reduced targets and snap share in games without Mitchell.

The line: CHI favored by 3.5 at open, now favored by 3 (0.5 toward NYJ); total opened at 43.25, now 43 (down 0.25).

Headlines it read (3)

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Mon 8:13 AM ETAsk about itThe game

Injured reserveDavid NjokuTE · LAC · Week 4

David Njoku on IR: Chargers pass-catchers all short on sample

David Njoku is on injured reserve with a lower leg injury, and he's already missed one game this season (2026 week 3) with Justin Herbert at quarterback, the same quarterback the Chargers have now. Every teammate split below is based on just one game without him, so none of it is proof of a lasting change.

  • Njoku played just 2 games this season, seeing 4 targets (15% of the team's targets), 3 catches, 6.4 PPR points, and 36% of snaps per game before landing on IR.
  • His one missed game (2026 week 3) came with Herbert at quarterback, the same QB in place now, so the comparison isn't muddied by a QB change.
  • Every teammate listed — Ladd McConkey, Omarion Hampton, Tre Harris, Keaton Mitchell, Oronde Gadsden II, Quentin Johnston, Alec Ingold, and Kimani Vidal — has only 1 game without Njoku, so their with/without splits are too small a sample to call a real trend.
  • No news headlines are available on how long Njoku is expected to be out or who takes his place in the offense.

The line: The total has moved from 43.5 at open to 43 now, a drop of 0.5. Seattle is favored by 6.5.

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Mon 8:12 AM ETAsk about itThe game

OutJayden DanielsQB · WAS · Week 4

Jayden Daniels out: Marcus Mariota takes over Commanders' offense

Jayden Daniels is out with an elbow injury, and Marcus Mariota becomes the clear starter based on how Washington has used him without Daniels in the past. Athan Kaliakmanis and Sam Hartman are the other options on the roster but neither has thrown 10-plus passes in a game the last two seasons.

  • Daniels has missed 11 games with this team, not counting this week: 2025 weeks 3, 4, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18 and 2026 week 3. Marcus Mariota started 9 of those, Josh Johnson the other 2.
  • Mariota's own with-and-without split (4 games with Daniels, 9 without) shows a jump from 7.5 pass attempts, 1.3 carries, 2.6 PPR points and 28% of snaps with Daniels active to 27.1 pass attempts, 5.7 carries, 16 PPR points and 94% of snaps without him.
  • Terry McLaurin and Jacory Croskey-Merritt show no clear change in their usage across Daniels' 11 missed games (McLaurin: 5 games with him vs. 8 without; Croskey-Merritt: 9 with vs. 11 without).
  • Stefon Diggs, Rachaad White and Antonio Williams each have only 1 game without Daniels this season (2026 week 3), too small a sample to draw conclusions from.

Fantasy ripple

  • ↑Marcus Mariota QB · Across 9 games without Daniels, Mariota averaged 27.1 pass attempts, 5.7 carries, 16 PPR points and 94% of snaps, up from 7.5 attempts, 1.3 carries, 2.6 PPR points and 28% of snaps in the 4 games with Daniels active.

The line: IND opened favored by 4 and is now favored by 3, a 1-point move toward Washington; the total opened at 46.5 and is now 47, up 0.5.

Headlines it read (3)

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Mon 8:12 AM ETAsk about itThe game

OutCaleb WilliamsQB · CHI · Week 4

Caleb Williams out for Bears; Bagent, Keenum, Moss in mix at QB

Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring injury, and per the Sun-Times he has a Grade 2 hamstring strain, with other outlets reporting a 3-4 week timeline. There are no games without Williams to compare, so this note leans on his own workload and what the backup options have shown as passers.

  • Williams was on the field for 93% of snaps and averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game this season (2 games); last season with Chicago he averaged 33.4 attempts and 99% of snaps over 17 games.
  • Backup Tyson Bagent has played 1 game this season (9 pass attempts, 14% of snaps, 2.2 PPR points) and has no games with 10 or more pass attempts in the last two seasons.
  • Case Keenum and Miller Moss have not played this season and also have no games with 10 or more pass attempts in the last two seasons.
  • No news headline in the facts names a starter for this week, so who takes over at QB isn't confirmed here.

The line: Chicago opened favored by 3.5 and is now favored by 3, a move of 0.5 toward the Jets; the total opened at 43.25 and is now 43, down 0.25.

Headlines it read (6)

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Mon 8:12 AM ETAsk about itThe game

Week 3

OutPuka NacuaWR · LA · Week 3

Puka Nacua Out: Ferguson and Corum Get Bigger Roles, Kyren Williams Dips

Puka Nacua is out (doubtful, hip) for Sunday night's Rams-Broncos game, per multiple reports, and Rams coach Sean McVay had already listed him as doubtful, per @rapsheet.bsky.social. In the two games Nacua has missed with the Rams — both with Matthew Stafford at quarterback, the same QB starting now — Terrance Ferguson and Blake Corum saw their roles grow while Kyren Williams' usage dipped.

  • Nacua has missed 2 games with the Rams, 2025 week 7 and 2026 week 2, both with Stafford at quarterback — the same QB playing now, so the comparison isn't muddied by a different passer.
  • Terrance Ferguson went from 1.8 targets (5% of team targets) and 3.2 PPR points with Nacua to 6 targets (19%) and 13.8 PPR points without him, though it's just 2 games.
  • Blake Corum's carries rose from 8.4 (31% of team carries) with Nacua to 12 (42%) without him, but again only a 2-game sample.
  • Kyren Williams' carries fell from 15.2 (55% of team carries) with Nacua to 12 (42%) without him, and his snap share dropped from 69% to 57%, also based on just 2 games.

Fantasy ripple

  • ↑Terrance Ferguson TE · Targets rose from 1.8 (5% of team targets) to 6 (19%) without Nacua, and PPR points went from 3.2 to 13.8 — but only 2 games.
  • ↑Blake Corum RB · Carries increased from 8.4 (31% of team carries) to 12 (42%) without Nacua, over just 2 games.
  • ↓Kyren Williams RB · Carries dropped from 15.2 (55% of team carries) to 12 (42%) and snaps fell from 69% to 57% without Nacua, in a small 2-game sample.

The line: The spread has moved from LA favored by 2.5 at open to LA favored by 1.5 now (1 point toward Denver), and the total has dropped from 45 to 44.

Headlines it read (5)

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Sun 8:12 PM ETAsk about itThe game

OutJayden DanielsQB · WAS · Week 3

Jayden Daniels out for Commanders; Marcus Mariota starts, Croskey-Merritt's workload dips

Daniels (elbow) is out against Seattle, and Marcus Mariota takes over at quarterback. Washington's history without Daniels shows a much heavier role for Mariota and a lighter one for Jacory Croskey-Merritt.

  • Daniels has missed 10 games with Washington, not counting this week (2025 weeks 3, 4, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18), with Mariota starting 8 of those and Josh Johnson 2.
  • In the 8 games without Daniels that Mariota played, Mariota averaged 26.6 pass attempts, 5.8 carries, 15.5 PPR points and 94% of snaps, compared to 7.5 attempts, 1.3 carries, 2.6 PPR points and 28% of snaps in the 4 games with Daniels on the field.
  • Croskey-Merritt has a down split: in 10 games without Daniels he averaged 9.8 carries (34% of team carries), 0.5 targets and 7.9 PPR points, versus 11.7 carries (40%), 1.1 targets and 8.8 PPR points in 9 games with Daniels.
  • Terry McLaurin's split shows no clear change, and other Commanders skill players (Diggs, Antonio Williams, Rachaad White) have no games-without-Daniels data to compare, so their usage without him is unknown.

Fantasy ripple

  • ↑Marcus Mariota QB · In 8 games without Daniels, Mariota averaged 26.6 attempts, 5.8 carries, 15.5 PPR points and 94% of snaps, well above his 7.5 attempts, 2.6 points and 28% of snaps in 4 games with Daniels playing.
  • ↓Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · Croskey-Merritt's workload dips without Daniels: 9.8 carries (34% share) and 7.9 PPR points across 10 games, versus 11.7 carries (40% share) and 8.8 points in 9 games with Daniels.

The line: SEA opened favored by 7 and is now favored by 8.5 (up 1.5 toward Seattle); the total opened at 40 and is now 40.5 (up 0.5).

Headlines it read (3)

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Sun 12:52 PM ETAsk about itThe game

OutNico CollinsWR · HOU · Week 3

Nico Collins out again: Hutchinson, Wayne see bigger roles

Nico Collins is out with a hamstring injury for a second straight game, per abc13.com. In the three games Collins has missed (2025 weeks 8 and 18, and 2026 week 2 — all with C.J. Stroud at quarterback, same as now), Xavier Hutchinson and Jared Wayne have both seen their usage climb.

  • Collins has missed 3 games with Houston (2025 weeks 8, 18; 2026 week 2), all with Stroud at QB, same as this week — but that's still a small sample.
  • Xavier Hutchinson's targets jumped from 3 (9% share) with Collins to 8 (21% share) without him, snaps up to 77%.
  • Jared Wayne's target share also rose without Collins, from 1 target (3% share) to 4.5 targets (10% share), though his own sample is just 1-2 games.
  • Woody Marks' overall usage trended down without Collins, with carries and snap share both dipping.

Fantasy ripple

  • ↑Xavier Hutchinson WR · Targets rose from 3 (9% share) to 8 (21% share) and snaps from 55% to 77% in games Collins missed.
  • ↑Jared Wayne WR · Targets rose from 1 (3% share) to 4.5 (10% share) without Collins, though sample is only 1-2 games.
  • ↓Woody Marks RB · Carries and snap share both dipped in games Collins missed, from 12.3 carries/53% snaps to 9.7 carries/45% snaps.

The line: HOU favored by 1.5 now, down from 2.5 at open (a 1-point move toward Indianapolis).

Headlines it read (1)

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Sun 12:47 PM ETAsk about itThe game

OutCaleb DouglasWR · MIA · Week 3

Caleb Douglas out for Miami, no track record without him

Caleb Douglas (WR) is out with an ankle injury after seeing 5 targets per game (20% of the team's targets) and playing 89% of snaps in Miami's first two games this season. There's no game in the last two seasons where he sat out, so there's nothing to compare his absence to yet.

  • Douglas has appeared in every game the last two seasons with Miami, so there are no with-and-without splits to draw from.
  • In his 2 games this season he took 20% of the team's targets and played 89% of snaps, the biggest passing-game role among Miami's receivers and tight ends.
  • Malik Washington currently holds the next-largest share among the group, with 6.5 targets per game (26% of the team's targets) and 86% of snaps over 2 games, though that's not tied to any game Douglas missed.
  • Running back Jaylen Wright is also out this week with a foot injury, adding another absence to Miami's offense.

The line: Kansas City opened as 11.5-point favorites and are now favored by 10, a move of 1.5 points toward Miami; the total has gone from 46 to 45.

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Sun 12:47 PM ETAsk about itThe game

Injured reserveDavid NjokuTE · LAC · Week 3

David Njoku on IR: Chargers' TE work up for grabs

David Njoku goes to injured reserve after averaging 4 targets (15% team share), 3 catches and 6.4 PPR points over 2 games this season while playing 36% of snaps. There are no games without him this season or last to show how Los Angeles used other players in his absence, so this is about the target share he leaves behind rather than a proven trend.

  • Njoku's 15% target share and 36% snap share are now open at tight end.
  • Charlie Kolar, the other Chargers TE, is himself out with a forearm injury, so he can't absorb that work.
  • Oronde Gadsden II is the next-biggest tight end share on the roster at 8% of targets and 31% of snaps over 2 games, but that's not proof he takes over Njoku's role.
  • No games-missed data exists to compare usage with and without Njoku.

The line: BUF is favored by 7 now after opening as a 7.5-point favorite, a move of 0.5 points toward LAC. The total sits at 50.

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Sun 12:46 PM ETAsk about itThe game

OutCaleb WilliamsQB · CHI · Week 3

Caleb Williams out for Bears vs. Eagles; backup picture unproven

Williams is out with a hamstring injury, and per the Sun-Times he has a Grade 2 hamstring strain; per TSN, the timeline is considered 3-4 weeks. There are no games without him in the last two seasons to show how the Bears' offense changes, so the picture leans on Williams' own workload and the unresolved backup situation.

  • Williams played 2 games this season (27.5 pass attempts, 7.5 carries, 22.5 PPR points, 93% of snaps) and 17 games last season with this team (33.4 attempts, 4.5 carries, 18.7 PPR points, 99% of snaps).
  • No games without Williams exist in the last two seasons, so there's no with/without split for teammates to compare.
  • Backup options are unproven as passers: Tyson Bagent, Case Keenum and Miller Moss each have no games with 10 or more pass attempts over the last two seasons.
  • Bagent himself is listed questionable with a concussion, adding uncertainty about who takes the majority of snaps at quarterback; per dawindycity.com, the Bears 'still won't say who starts against the Eagles.'

The line: PHI favored by 3.5 now versus 4.5 at open (line moved 1 point toward CHI); total is 42 now versus 41 at open (up 1).

Headlines it read (6)

Written by StatGrades AI from our game logs · Sun 12:46 PM ETAsk about itThe game

How this works

Who counts as a starter. A quarterback who throws most of his team's passes, a running back with at least 35% of the carries or 12 touches a game, a receiver or tight end with at least 15% of the targets. A note is written the first week he's Out, Doubtful or on injured reserve, not every week of a long absence.

“Without him” numbers. From this season and last, we find the games he missed while on the team and compare each teammate's targets, carries, snaps and PPR points in those games with the games he played. Fewer than four games is a small sample, and the note says so. So does a change of quarterback, which muddies the comparison.

What the AI can't do. It may use only numbers from our data: a draft with a figure that isn't in the facts is sent back, and held back if it happens twice. It doesn't claim the line moved because of the injury, since it can't know when or why the line moved.