22.9

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Cade Otton playing this week?

No injury designation

Cade Otton has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game against the Green Bay Packers.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:48 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

Scoring:
PPRHalf PPRStandard
BENCH#26 TE this weekHigh confidence

Bench. GB's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to TEs than the league average.

Why we say bench

  • Projected 4.6 points, #26 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
  • GB's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
  • TB's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
  • Averaging 5.7 targets a game.
  • Played 94% of the offense's snaps last game.

Projected points

4.6

Likely range 2–8: the middle half of outcomes

vs GB · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 5.5 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
TB underdogs by 3
Game total
38.5
GB vs TEs
13% fewer points
Last game snaps
94%

All week 4 tight end rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

27

Height

6'5"

Weight

250 lb

College

Washington

Experience

4 seasons

Draft

2022 · Pick #106 (TB)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 22.9?

Otton's grade is low because his targets rarely produced successful plays, and the expected points they added were below the typical tight end. Only 17 targets over 3 games are graded, so this is a small sample.

Holding it back

  • Success rate on targets was 35%, 23rd of 24 tight ends, so most throws to him did not help the offense.
  • EPA per target was +0.124 expected points, 18th of 24.
  • Week 2 vs CLE, 3rd and 13: he caught a pass for 9 yards, short of the first down, which cost 1.6 expected points.

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.118

Success rate

35%

WPA (sum)

0.08

Opponent adj.

0.013

Plays graded

17

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Separation
3.4
Cushion
6.3
YAC above exp
+0.1
YAC / rec
7.7
Expected YAC
7.6
Air yards share
12.6%
Intended air yds
6.9
Catch %
64.7%
WeekSeparationCushionYAC above exp
14.16.6-0.2
24.07.2-1.6
32.35.6+3.4
What do these mean?
Separation:
Average distance from the nearest defender at the moment of the catch.
Cushion:
Average distance from the nearest defender at the snap.
YAC above exp:
Yards after catch above what the situation would be expected to produce.
YAC / rec:
Average yards after the catch per reception.
Expected YAC:
Expected yards after the catch, based on tracking data.
Air yards share:
Share of the team's intended air yards that were thrown toward this player.
Intended air yds:
Average depth of the targets thrown his way.
Catch %:
Receptions divided by targets.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

TgtRecYdsTDFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games1711120023.017994%1%22.9

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameTgtRecYdsTDFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · MIN635608.66594%3%64.8
Wk 2 · CLE653808.85889%0%12.5
Wk 1 · CIN532605.65698%0%39.6