71.8

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Garrett Wilson playing this week?

No injury designation

Garrett Wilson has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game at the Chicago Bears.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:37 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

Injury ripple · Week 4

Mitchell Out: Garrett Wilson Could See More Work, Allen and Williams Dip

↑ Up · More targets and snaps in games Mitchell has missed, though QB usage differs from now.

Read the full note →

Ask StatGrades about Garrett Wilson

Ask your own question

Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

Scoring:
PPRHalf PPRStandard
START#11 WR this weekHigh confidence

Start. Scored 21.7 points last game against a typical 9.1 (trending up).

Why we say start

  • Projected 12.1 points, #11 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
  • Scored 21.7 points last game against a typical 9.1 (trending up).
  • Averaging 9 targets a game.
  • Played 94% of the offense's snaps last game.

Projected points

12.1

Likely range 5–21: the middle half of outcomes

@ CHI · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 9.1 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~20 pts
Vegas line
NYJ underdogs by 3.5
Game total
43.5
CHI vs WRs
11% more points
Last game snaps
94%

All week 4 wide receiver rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

26

Height

6'0"

Weight

183 lb

College

Ohio State

Experience

4 seasons

Draft

2022 · Pick #10 (NYJ)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 71.8?

Wilson's grade of 68.1 is above average mainly because of his solid per-target value, worth +0.477 expected points per play, ranking 31st among 89 qualifying receivers. Everything else about his game graded close to average, and the slightly easier defenses he faced trimmed a small amount off the score. His grade is based on just 28 targets over 3 games, a small sample.

Lifting the grade

  • EPA per target of +0.477 per play, 31st of 89, drove most of the grade.
  • Week 3 at Detroit: drew a defensive pass interference penalty on a 22-yard catch on 4th and 6, worth +4.7 expected points.
  • Week 1 at Tennessee: converted a 4th and 2 with a 9-yard catch, worth +2.8 expected points.

Holding it back

  • Week 2 vs Green Bay: two incomplete targets on 3rd and 7 and 2nd and 10 cost -1.6 and -1.2 expected points.
  • Week 3 vs Detroit: a short catch for no gain on 3rd and 15 cost -1.0 expected points.
  • Facing easier-than-average defenses trimmed 0.040 expected points per play off the grade.

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.517

Success rate

57%

WPA (sum)

0.52

Opponent adj.

-0.041

Plays graded

28

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Separation
2.3
Cushion
4.1
YAC above exp
-0.7
YAC / rec
2.0
Expected YAC
2.7
Air yards share
38.3%
Intended air yds
10.4
Catch %
77.8%
WeekSeparationCushionYAC above exp
13.04.9-1.1
21.93.2-1.1
32.24.2-0.3
What do these mean?
Separation:
Average distance from the nearest defender at the moment of the catch.
Cushion:
Average distance from the nearest defender at the snap.
YAC above exp:
Yards after catch above what the situation would be expected to produce.
YAC / rec:
Average yards after the catch per reception.
Expected YAC:
Expected yards after the catch, based on tracking data.
Air yards share:
Share of the team's intended air yards that were thrown toward this player.
Intended air yds:
Average depth of the targets thrown his way.
Catch %:
Receptions divided by targets.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

TgtRecYdsTDFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games2721243257.317786%1%71.8

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameTgtRecYdsTDFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · DET1310107126.76294%0%61.9
Wk 2 · GB7557116.76588%0%64.4
Wk 1 · TEN7679013.95075%4%78.4