Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
Mike Gesicki or Tyler Warren?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (10.1 vs 10.8). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Tyler Warren (52%).
Mike Gesicki outscores Tyler Warren 48% of the time; Tyler Warren 52%.
TE, CIN at MIA
10.1 projected PPR points
Likely range 4–18 · TE7 this week · Start
Start. Scored 13 points last game against a typical 5.1 (trending up).
TE, IND at PIT
10.8 projected PPR points
Likely range 4–19 · TE5 this week · Must start
Must start. Projected 10.8 points, #5 among TEs this week.
Side by side
| Mike Gesicki | Tyler Warren | |
|---|---|---|
| 10.1 | Projected points | 10.8 |
| 3.6 | Floor (a bad day) | 3.9 |
| 17.9 | Ceiling (a big day) | 19.1 |
| MIA +28% | Matchup | PIT +8% |
| ~25 pts | Team's expected score | ~20 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Hot ▲ | Recent form | Steady |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.