Fantasy · Week 6 · Start or sit
Jake Ferguson or Zach Ertz?
Our week 6 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (7.3 vs 6.7). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Jake Ferguson (52%).
Jake Ferguson outscores Zach Ertz 52% of the time; Zach Ertz 48%.
TE, DAL at GB
7.3 projected PPR points
Likely range 3–13 · TE16 this week · Flex
Flex option. DAL's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
TE, PHI vs CAR
6.7 projected PPR points
Likely range 2–12 · TE19 this week · Bench
Bench. Scored 0 points last game against a typical 8.4 (trending down).
Side by side
| Jake Ferguson | Zach Ertz | |
|---|---|---|
| 7.3 | Projected points | 6.7 |
| 2.6 | Floor (a bad day) | 2.4 |
| 12.9 | Ceiling (a big day) | 11.8 |
| GB -17% | Matchup | CAR +9% |
| ~26 pts | Team's expected score | ~18 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Cold ▼ | Recent form | Cold ▼ |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.