Fantasy · Week 6 · Start or sit
Jake Ferguson or Pat Freiermuth?
Our week 6 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (7.3 vs 6.8). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Jake Ferguson (52%).
Jake Ferguson outscores Pat Freiermuth 52% of the time; Pat Freiermuth 48%.
TE, DAL at GB
7.3 projected PPR points
Likely range 3–13 · TE16 this week · Flex
Flex option. DAL's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
TE, PIT at TB
6.8 projected PPR points
Likely range 2–12 · TE17 this week · Bench
Bench. Wind of 15 mph can hurt the passing game.
Side by side
| Jake Ferguson | Pat Freiermuth | |
|---|---|---|
| 7.3 | Projected points | 6.8 |
| 2.6 | Floor (a bad day) | 2.4 |
| 12.9 | Ceiling (a big day) | 12.0 |
| GB -17% | Matchup | TB +17% |
| ~26 pts | Team's expected score | ~20 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Cold ▼ | Recent form | Hot ▲ |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.