Fantasy · Week 7 · Start or sit
Geno Smith Or Malik Willis?
Our week 7 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (11.9 vs 11.7). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Geno Smith (51%).
Geno Smith outscores Malik Willis 51% of the time; Malik Willis 49%.
QB, NYJ vs MIA
11.9 projected PPR points
Likely range 6–19 · QB22 this week · Bench
Bench. Projected 11.9 points, #22 among QBs this week.
QB, MIA at NYJ
11.7 projected PPR points
Likely range 6–18 · QB24 this week · Bench
Bench. MIA's offense is expected to score only about 17 points, a tough scoring spot.
Side by side
| Geno Smith | Malik Willis | |
|---|---|---|
| 11.9 | Projected points | 11.7 |
| 6.2 | Floor (a bad day) | 6.1 |
| 18.8 | Ceiling (a big day) | 18.4 |
| MIA +11% | Matchup | NYJ +8% |
| ~22 pts | Team's expected score | ~17 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Steady | Recent form | Hot ▲ |
| High | Our confidence | High |
They play in the same game, so their scores tend to rise and fall together. The probability above treats them as independent.
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.