Fantasy · Week 7 · Start or sit
AJ Barner Or Jake Ferguson?
Our week 7 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (6.1 vs 6.5). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Jake Ferguson (52%).
AJ Barner outscores Jake Ferguson 48% of the time; Jake Ferguson 52%.
TE, SEA vs KC
6.1 projected PPR points
Likely range 2–11 · TE18 this week · Bench
Bench. Projected 6.1 points, 0.5 behind #16, the last one we'd start.
TE, DAL at PHI
6.5 projected PPR points
Likely range 2–12 · TE17 this week · Bench
Bench. Scored 3.3 points last game against a typical 9.9 (trending down).
Side by side
| AJ Barner | Jake Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
| 6.1 | Projected points | 6.5 |
| 2.2 | Floor (a bad day) | 2.3 |
| 10.8 | Ceiling (a big day) | 11.5 |
| KC +7% | Matchup | PHI -28% |
| ~23 pts | Team's expected score | ~25 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Steady | Recent form | Cold ▼ |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.