Fantasy · Week 6 · Start or sit
A.J. Brown or Garrett Wilson?
Our week 6 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (11.2 vs 11.4). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Garrett Wilson (51%).
A.J. Brown outscores Garrett Wilson 49% of the time; Garrett Wilson 51%.
WR, NE vs NYJ
11.2 projected PPR points
Likely range 5–19 · WR18 this week · Start
Start. NE's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
WR, NYJ at NE
11.4 projected PPR points
Likely range 5–20 · WR17 this week · Start
Start. Scored 23.4 points last game against a typical 11.1 (trending up).
Side by side
| A.J. Brown | Garrett Wilson | |
|---|---|---|
| 11.2 | Projected points | 11.4 |
| 4.5 | Floor (a bad day) | 4.6 |
| 19.3 | Ceiling (a big day) | 19.6 |
| NYJ -5% | Matchup | NE -4% |
| ~26 pts | Team's expected score | ~18 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Cold ▼ | Recent form | Hot ▲ |
| High | Our confidence | High |
They play in the same game, so their scores tend to rise and fall together. The probability above treats them as independent.
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.