83.9

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Antonio Williams playing this week?

No injury designation

Antonio Williams has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game against the Indianapolis Colts.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 9:30 AM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:36 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

Scoring:
PPRHalf PPRStandard
BENCH#51 WR this weekHigh confidence

Bench. Projected 4.3 points, #51 among WRs this week.

Why we say bench

  • Projected 4.3 points, #51 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
  • Upside: IND's defense has allowed 15% more points to WRs than the league average.
  • Averaging 3.7 targets a game.
  • Played 41% of the offense's snaps last game.

Projected points

4.3

Likely range 2–7: the middle half of outcomes

vs IND · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 3.2 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
WAS underdogs by 4.5
Game total
46.5
IND vs WRs
15% more points
Last game snaps
41%

All week 4 wide receiver rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

22

Height

5'11"

Weight

195 lb

College

Clemson

Experience

Rookie

Draft

2026 · Pick #71 (WAS)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 83.9?

Williams grades well because of how much he produced per target — his adjusted EPA per target ranks 15th among 89 qualifying receivers. His targets came in a small 3-game, 11-target sample, headlined by a huge week 1 against Philadelphia before a quiet week 3 against Seattle.

Lifting the grade

  • EPA per target of +0.785 ranks 15th of 89 receivers, the main driver of the grade
  • Week 1 vs PHI: 33-yard catch on 3rd and 14 for +4.1 expected points
  • Week 1 vs PHI: touchdown catch on 3rd and 1 for +1.5 expected points

Holding it back

  • Week 3 vs SEA: incomplete deep pass on 3rd and 2 cost -1.8 expected points
  • Week 3 vs SEA: incomplete short pass on 2nd and 9 cost -0.5 expected points

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.806

Success rate

73%

WPA (sum)

0.18

Opponent adj.

-0.039

Plays graded

11

Advanced stats

2026 season · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Separation
3.1
Cushion
6.3
YAC above exp
+0.7
YAC / rec
2.7
Expected YAC
2.0
Air yards share
14.1%
Intended air yds
11.0
Catch %
81.8%
What do these mean?
Separation:
Average distance from the nearest defender at the moment of the catch.
Cushion:
Average distance from the nearest defender at the snap.
YAC above exp:
Yards after catch above what the situation would be expected to produce.
YAC / rec:
Average yards after the catch per reception.
Expected YAC:
Expected yards after the catch, based on tracking data.
Air yards share:
Share of the team's intended air yards that were thrown toward this player.
Intended air yds:
Average depth of the targets thrown his way.
Catch %:
Receptions divided by targets.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

TgtRecYdsTDFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games119103125.38942%0%83.9

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameTgtRecYdsTDFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · SEA421503.52841%0%12.7
Wk 2 · DAL332405.43549%0%66.7
Wk 1 · PHI4464116.42637%0%99.3