29.0

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is TreVeyon Henderson playing this week?

No injury designation

TreVeyon Henderson has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game at the Buffalo Bills.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:42 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

Ask StatGrades about TreVeyon Henderson

Ask your own question

Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

Scoring:
PPRHalf PPRStandard
FLEX#27 RB this weekHigh confidence

Flex option. BUF's defense has allowed 15% more points to RBs than the league average.

Why we say flex

  • Projected 8.6 points, #27 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
  • BUF's defense has allowed 15% more points to RBs than the league average.
  • Concern: Scored 3.9 points last game against a typical 10.9 (trending down).
  • Averaging 12 carries and 0.5 targets a game.
  • Played 37% of the offense's snaps last game.

Projected points

8.6

Likely range 4–14: the middle half of outcomes

@ BUF · Game page →

Recent form

W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NE underdogs by 7
Game total
49.5
BUF vs RBs
15% more points
Last game snaps
37%

All week 4 running back rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

23

Height

5'10"

Weight

202 lb

College

Ohio State

Experience

1 season

Draft

2025 · Pick #38 (NE)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 29.0?

Henderson's grade is low because his carries and targets have cost the offense expected points, and only 29% of his runs kept the offense on schedule. With just 25 touches over 2 games, this is a small sample, so a few plays can swing the grade a lot.

Holding it back

  • EPA per touch was -0.154 expected points per play, 36th of 51 backs.
  • Rushing success rate (share of carries that kept the offense on schedule) was 29%, 44th of 51.
  • In week 2 vs PIT, a 2nd-and-3 run in Q2 lost 3 yards (-1.2 expected points), and another in Q3 lost 2 (-1.2).

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

-0.165

Success rate

29%

WPA (sum)

-0.06

Opponent adj.

0.004

Plays graded

25

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 2 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Rush yds over expected
+16.3
Yds over exp / att
+0.68
Carries over expected
0.3%
Expected rush yds
82.7
Efficiency
3.14
Vs 8+ in the box
16.7%
Time to line
2.61s
What do these mean?
Rush yds over expected:
Rushing yards above what the blocking and defenders in each carry would be expected to produce.
Yds over exp / att:
Rush yards over expected per carry.
Carries over expected:
Share of carries that gained more than expected.
Expected rush yds:
Yards the carries would be expected to gain on average, based on tracking data.
Efficiency:
Distance traveled per yard gained. Lower means a more direct, north-south runner.
Vs 8+ in the box:
Share of carries against eight or more defenders near the line.
Time to line:
Average seconds from the handoff to reaching the line of scrimmage.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

CarRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDFum LostFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
2 games24991160017.55649%0%29.0

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameCarRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDFum LostFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · JAX823016003.92337%0%21.7
Wk 2 · PIT16761000013.63360%0%65.1