77.0

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Bijan Robinson playing this week?

No injury designation

Bijan Robinson has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game at the New Orleans Saints.

Kickoff: Mon, Oct 5 · 8:15 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:37 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

Ask StatGrades about Bijan Robinson

Ask your own question

Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

Scoring:
PPRHalf PPRStandard
MUST START#3 RB this weekHigh confidence

Must start. Scored 33.3 points last game against a typical 15.4 (trending up).

Why we say must start

  • Projected 18.7 points, #3 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
  • Scored 33.3 points last game against a typical 15.4 (trending up).
  • Averaging 22 carries and 5.3 targets a game.
  • Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.

Projected points

18.7

Likely range 9–30: the middle half of outcomes

@ NO · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 15.4 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
ATL underdogs by 2.5
Game total
47.5
NO vs RBs
8% more points
Last game snaps
72%

All week 4 running back rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

24

Height

5'11"

Weight

214 lb

College

Texas

Experience

3 seasons

Draft

2023 · Pick #8 (ATL)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 77.0?

Robinson's grade comes mostly from strong rushing efficiency, keeping drives on schedule 53% of the time, one of the best marks among running backs. His overall value per touch was slightly below average, but a huge week 3 game at Green Bay lifted his numbers after two rough outings.

Lifting the grade

  • Rushing success rate ranked 5th of 49 backs, keeping drives on schedule
  • 55-yard run and a 31-yard run vs Green Bay in week 3 boosted his output
  • 23-yard touchdown catch in week 1 vs Pittsburgh added value

Holding it back

  • Interception off a pass intended for him returned for a touchdown by Watt in week 1
  • Another target intercepted by Okereke in week 2 vs Carolina
  • Fumble on a short-yardage run in week 1, though he recovered it

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.072

Success rate

53%

WPA (sum)

-0.05

Opponent adj.

0.007

Plays graded

82

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Rush yds over expected
+64.8
Yds over exp / att
+1.03
Carries over expected
0.4%
Expected rush yds
269.2
Efficiency
3.37
Vs 8+ in the box
16.7%
Time to line
2.75s
WeekRush yds over expectedYds over exp / attVs 8+ in the box
1-7.6-0.424.8%
2-5.1-0.326.3%
3+77.5+2.6731.0%
What do these mean?
Rush yds over expected:
Rushing yards above what the blocking and defenders in each carry would be expected to produce.
Yds over exp / att:
Rush yards over expected per carry.
Carries over expected:
Share of carries that gained more than expected.
Expected rush yds:
Yards the carries would be expected to gain on average, based on tracking data.
Efficiency:
Distance traveled per yard gained. Lower means a more direct, north-south runner.
Vs 8+ in the box:
Share of carries against eight or more defenders near the line.
Time to line:
Average seconds from the handoff to reaching the line of scrimmage.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

CarRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDFum LostFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games663492131181077.713267%0%77.0

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameCarRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDFum LostFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · GB2919422190035.35172%0%99.1
Wk 2 · CAR16720390011.13551%0%19.8
Wk 1 · PIT218308901031.34677%0%34.2