Public track record
Storyline scoreboard
Fans swear some games mean more: a player facing his old team, a homecoming, something to prove. We tag those games before kickoff, then check whether those players beat their projections by more than everyone else. Whatever it finds goes here, win or lose. All scoring is PPR.
Revenge games
A player facing a team he played for: at least four games there in the last three seasons, or any this season.
Too early to tell: 7 games so far, and it takes at least 20 before the numbers mean much.
Games graded
7
1 more tagged but didn't play
Beat projection
29%
everyone else: 35%
Vs projection
−1.1 pts
comparable players: +0.6 pts
The storyline effect
−1.7 pts
rough range −6.2 to +2.9
Every graded game
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN · Week 3 · Faces NYG, his team through 2025proj 10.2 → 18.7+7.1 vs peers
- Ke'Shawn Williams WR · CIN · Week 3 · Faces PIT, his team in 2025proj 0.2 → 0.0−0.7 vs peers
- D'Andre Swift RB · CHI · Week 3 · Faces PHI, his team through 2023proj 15.7 → 10.8−6.9 vs peers
- Kendrick Bourne WR · ARI · Week 3 · Faces SF, his team in 2025proj 7.0 → 4.2−2.9 vs peers
- Josh Palmer WR · BUF · Week 3 · Faces LAC, his team through 2024proj 6.3 → 0.0−6.4 vs peers
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR · LAC · Week 3 · Faces BUF, his team in 2024proj 2.8 → 0.0−3.3 vs peers
- Daniel Bellinger TE · TEN · Week 3 · Faces NYG, his team through 2025proj 2.9 → 3.6+1.3 vs peers
Tagged but didn't play (not counted): Tyler Conklin (week 3).
Tagged for the games ahead
Tagged from our data before kickoff and frozen once the game starts. Projections are StatGrades' PPR projections, frozen the same way.
- Derrick Henry RB · BAL · Week 4 · Faces TEN, his team through 2023proj 19.8Ask about it
- Mack Hollins WR · NE · Week 4 · Faces BUF, his team in 2024proj 7.0Ask about it
- Chris Moore WR · BAL · Week 4 · Faces TEN, his team through 2023proj 1.4Ask about it
- Reggie Gilliam RB · NE · Week 4 · Faces BUF, his team through 2025proj 0.3Ask about it
- Sam Darnold QB · SEA · Week 5 · Faces SF, his team through 2023proj 13.5Ask about it
- Michael Pittman WR · PIT · Week 5 · Faces IND, his team through 2025proj 8.5Ask about it
- J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN · Week 5 · Faces LAC, his team in 2024proj 7.5Ask about it
- Tank Bigsby RB · PHI · Week 5 · Faces JAX, his team through 2024proj 3.0Ask about it
- Johnny Mundt TE · PHI · Week 5 · Faces JAX, his team in 2025proj 1.4Ask about it
- Eric Saubert TE · SEA · Week 5 · Faces SF, his team in 2024proj 1.1Ask about it
- Cooper Rush QB · ATL · Week 5 · Faces BAL, his team in 2025proj 0.9Ask about it
- Malachi Corley WR · CLE · Week 5 · Faces NYJ, his team in 2024proj 0.5Ask about it
- Joshua Dobbs QB · DET · Week 5 · Faces ARI, his team through 2023proj 0.3Ask about it
How this works
Nothing is picked afterwards. Each storyline is tagged from our data before the game (who played for which team, from three seasons of play-by-play records), and each projection is frozen before kickoff. Neither is changed once the game starts.
Beating a projection isn't enough. In some weeks nearly everyone beats it, and a 4-point backup misses differently from a 20-point starter. So every tagged player is compared with untagged players at his position, in the same week, with a similar projection. The storyline effect is how much better (or worse) he did than they did.
Small samples lie. A dozen games can swing either way by luck, so the range under the effect shows roughly how far chance alone could move it. Until at least 20 games are in, the verdict says it's too early. When the range sits entirely above or below zero, that's a real finding.
What's tagged so far: revenge games. Homecomings would need birthplaces, which our data doesn't have yet; Ask StatGrades finds those stories in the news instead. See also the projection scorecard. Tagging started in week 3 of 2026.