73.4

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Mack Hollins playing this week?

No injury designation

Mack Hollins has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game at the Buffalo Bills.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:20 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Revenge gameFaces BUF, his team in 2024

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

Scoring:
PPRHalf PPRStandard
BENCH#48 WR this weekHigh confidence

Bench. Projected 7.0 points, #48 among WRs this week.

Why we say bench

  • Projected 7.0 points, #48 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
  • Upside: Scored 14.7 points last game against a typical 7.1 (trending up).
  • Averaging 5.3 targets a game.
  • Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.

Projected points

7.0

Likely range 3–12: the middle half of outcomes

@ BUF · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 7.1 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NE underdogs by 7
Game total
49.5
BUF vs WRs
4% fewer points
Last game snaps
76%

All week 4 wide receiver rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

33

Height

6'4"

Weight

221 lb

College

North Carolina

Experience

9 seasons

Draft

2017 · Pick #118 (PHI)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 73.4?

Hollins' grade is driven mainly by strong value per target, ranking 22nd of 89 receivers on adjusted EPA per target through just 16 targets and 2 games — a small sample where a few plays swing things. His other measures were about average, so this efficiency is what's carrying the grade.

Lifting the grade

  • Adjusted EPA per target of +0.591 ranks 22nd of 89 receivers
  • Week 3 vs JAX: 21-yard catch and drag out of bounds on 3rd and 5 (+2.7 expected points)
  • Week 3 vs JAX: 18-yard catch out of bounds on 3rd and 8 (+2.5 expected points)

Holding it back

  • Week 1 vs SEA: pass intended for him intercepted on 3rd and 5 (-2.7 expected points)
  • Week 3 vs JAX: 9-yard catch wiped out in value by a taunting penalty (-1.3 expected points)
  • Week 3 vs JAX: incomplete deep pass on 3rd and 6 (-0.9 expected points)

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.554

Success rate

69%

WPA (sum)

-0.04

Opponent adj.

0.030

Plays graded

16

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Separation
2.9
Cushion
6.1
YAC above exp
+1.0
YAC / rec
2.9
Expected YAC
1.9
Air yards share
26.0%
Intended air yds
12.6
Catch %
75.0%
WeekSeparationCushionYAC above exp
13.45.3-0.5
32.66.1+1.9
What do these mean?
Separation:
Average distance from the nearest defender at the moment of the catch.
Cushion:
Average distance from the nearest defender at the snap.
YAC above exp:
Yards after catch above what the situation would be expected to produce.
YAC / rec:
Average yards after the catch per reception.
Expected YAC:
Expected yards after the catch, based on tracking data.
Air yards share:
Share of the team's intended air yards that were thrown toward this player.
Intended air yds:
Average depth of the targets thrown his way.
Catch %:
Receptions divided by targets.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

TgtRecYdsTDFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games1612156027.613772%23%73.4

Game log

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GameTgtRecYdsTDFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · JAX9687014.74876%30%73.9
Wk 1 · SEA545109.15070%36%61.9