Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
T.J. Hockenson or Tucker Kraft?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (9.5 vs 9.1). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean T.J. Hockenson (51%).
T.J. Hockenson outscores Tucker Kraft 51% of the time; Tucker Kraft 49%.
TE, MIN at NO
9.5 projected PPR points
Likely range 3–17 · TE11 this week · Start
Start. Scored 24.9 points last game against a typical 6.6 (trending up).
TE, GB vs CHI
9.1 projected PPR points
Likely range 3–16 · TE12 this week · Start
Start. Scored 16.5 points last game against a typical 11.7 (trending up).
Side by side
| T.J. Hockenson | Tucker Kraft | |
|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | Projected points | 9.1 |
| 3.4 | Floor (a bad day) | 3.3 |
| 16.8 | Ceiling (a big day) | 16.1 |
| NO +7% | Matchup | CHI -18% |
| ~22 pts | Team's expected score | ~23 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Hot ▲ | Recent form | Hot ▲ |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.