Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
Isaiah Likely or T.J. Hockenson?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (8.6 vs 9.5). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean T.J. Hockenson (53%).
Isaiah Likely outscores T.J. Hockenson 47% of the time; T.J. Hockenson 53%.
TE, NYG at WAS
8.6 projected PPR points
Likely range 3–15 · TE13 this week · Flex
Flex option. Scored 13.6 points last game against a typical 4.4 (trending up).
TE, MIN at NO
9.5 projected PPR points
Likely range 3–17 · TE11 this week · Start
Start. Scored 24.9 points last game against a typical 6.6 (trending up).
Side by side
| Isaiah Likely | T.J. Hockenson | |
|---|---|---|
| 8.6 | Projected points | 9.5 |
| 3.1 | Floor (a bad day) | 3.4 |
| 15.2 | Ceiling (a big day) | 16.8 |
| WAS +25% | Matchup | NO +7% |
| ~19 pts | Team's expected score | ~22 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Hot ▲ | Recent form | Hot ▲ |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.