Fantasy · Week 9 · Start or sit
Gardner Minshew Or Justin Herbert?
Our week 9 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (10.9 vs 10.5). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Gardner Minshew (51%).
Gardner Minshew outscores Justin Herbert 51% of the time; Justin Herbert 49%.
QB, ARI at SEA
10.9 projected PPR points
Likely range 6–17 · QB23 this week · Bench
Bench. SEA's defense has allowed 24% fewer points to QBs than the league average.
QB, LAC vs HOU
10.5 projected PPR points
Likely range 6–17 · QB24 this week · Bench
Bench. Scored 7.8 points last game against a typical 15.9 (trending down).
Side by side
| Gardner Minshew | Justin Herbert | |
|---|---|---|
| 10.9 | Projected points | 10.5 |
| 5.7 | Floor (a bad day) | 5.5 |
| 17.2 | Ceiling (a big day) | 16.5 |
| SEA -24% | Matchup | HOU -7% |
| ~16 pts | Team's expected score | ~18 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Hot ▲ | Recent form | Cold ▼ |
| Medium | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.