Fantasy · Week 6 · Start or sit
C.J. Stroud or Trevor Lawrence?
Our week 6 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (15.5 vs 16.4). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Trevor Lawrence (52%).
C.J. Stroud outscores Trevor Lawrence 48% of the time; Trevor Lawrence 52%.
QB, HOU at JAX
15.5 projected PPR points
Likely range 8–24 · QB11 this week · Start
Start. Scored 20.9 points last game against a typical 13 (trending up).
QB, JAX vs HOU
16.4 projected PPR points
Likely range 9–26 · QB9 this week · Start
Start. Projected 16.4 points, #9 among QBs this week.
Side by side
| C.J. Stroud | Trevor Lawrence | |
|---|---|---|
| 15.5 | Projected points | 16.4 |
| 8.1 | Floor (a bad day) | 8.5 |
| 24.4 | Ceiling (a big day) | 25.8 |
| JAX -9% | Matchup | HOU -14% |
| ~20 pts | Team's expected score | ~23 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Hot ▲ | Recent form | Steady |
| High | Our confidence | High |
They play in the same game, so their scores tend to rise and fall together. The probability above treats them as independent.
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.