Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
Brenton Strange or Kyle Pitts?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (7.5 vs 7.6). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Kyle Pitts (50%).
Brenton Strange outscores Kyle Pitts 50% of the time; Kyle Pitts 50%.
TE, JAX vs PHI
7.5 projected PPR points
Likely range 3–13 · TE18 this week · Bench
Bench. PHI's defense has allowed 39% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
TE, ATL vs BAL
7.6 projected PPR points
Likely range 3–13 · TE17 this week · Bench
Bench. BAL's defense has allowed 20% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
Side by side
| Brenton Strange | Kyle Pitts | |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Projected points | 7.6 |
| 2.7 | Floor (a bad day) | 2.7 |
| 13.3 | Ceiling (a big day) | 13.4 |
| PHI -39% | Matchup | BAL -20% |
| ~25 pts | Team's expected score | ~23 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Hot ▲ | Recent form | Steady |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.