🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
College football · 2026 · Week 5
StatGrades Picks
A call against the spread and the total on every FBS game with a line, from the StatGrades ratings formula, and StatGrades AI's own pick and reasoning on every game with a ranked team: the lines, both teams' results and play-by-play efficiency, their best players' grades and a fresh search of the news. Graded against the final score.
These picks are for information and entertainment, not financial advice, and no pick is a sure thing. StatGrades doesn't take bets or link you to a sportsbook account. Odds are shown for information and can change at any moment; check with the book before you bet. 21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Early lean
From when the lines open. The AI's first read, re-checked as the line moves, so it can still switch sides. Not final.
Official pick
From 6 PM ET on the Wednesday before the game. This is the pick, at its line, and the one the record grades. It doesn't change after that.
Free for the seasonCollege Best Bets · Week 5 · AI vs Formula
Two college picks a week, one from StatGrades AI and one from the StatGrades Formula, each locked at a published time and graded in public. AI: record starts with the first result. Formula: record starts with the first result. All-Access shows you both picks and the reasoning. It's $12.99 a month, and free with an account for the rest of the season.
Get it freeFor information and entertainment, not advice. StatGrades doesn't take bets. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
StatGrades AI record
Games with a ranked team. Every pick becomes official at 6 PM ET on the Wednesday before its game and is graded at its official line against the final score. About 52.4% against the spread breaks even at standard -110 prices.
Top calls
0-2
0% of decided picks
Against the spread
5-3
63% of decided picks
Over-under
8-0
100% of decided picks
Straight up
7-1
88% of decided picks
StatGrades Formula record
Every FBS game with a line. A ratings formula, not AI: each team rated from this season's closing lines and results (and, early on, last season's), plus home field, compared with the market. Frozen at kickoff and graded like any pick.
Top calls
3-6-1
33% of decided picks
Against the spread
15-16-1
48% of decided picks
Over-under
19-13
59% of decided picks
Straight up
22-10
69% of decided picks
Against the closing number · StatGrades AI
Whether the market moved toward a pick after it was made, measured against the number the game actually closed at. A record takes a long time to mean anything; this says something after a few weeks. Positive is good.
Spread
+0.61 pts
market moved our way on 9 of 14
Total
+0.36 pts
market moved our way on 6 of 14
The AI grades itself
After every game the AI reads its own locked pick next to the play-by-play and says whether the game went the way its reasoning said it would. A win can be lucky and a loss can be the right read; a record can't tell those apart, so it says which. Each game's review is on its card below.
Right, for its reasons
3
of 9 winning calls
Right, but lucky
6
of 9 winning calls
Wrong, read held up
0
of 1 losing calls
Wrong read
1
of 1 losing calls
Against the baseline. On the 4 graded games where StatGrades AI and the formula took different sides, the AI went 2-2 and the formula went 2-2.
The record is open. Every pick is free with All-Access this season.
All-Access shows every pick in full: the college Best Bet of the Week, and the side, the total, the predicted score and the reasoning for every game. It's $12.99 a month, and free with an account for the rest of the season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
8Florida @ 25Missouri Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Auburn @ 17Tennessee Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
California @ UNLV Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Louisville @ NC State Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Virginia @ Florida State Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
5Ohio State @ 14Iowa Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Wyoming @ North Dakota State Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Akron @ Central Michigan Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Ohio @ Kent State Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Old Dominion @ Georgia State Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Marshall @ James Madison Sat, Oct 3 · 3:45 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Maryland @ Nebraska Sat, Oct 3 · 4:00 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
UTEP @ New Mexico Sat, Oct 3 · 4:00 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
24Kentucky @ South Carolina Sat, Oct 3 · 4:15 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Purdue @ Illinois Sat, Oct 3 · 4:15 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Oregon State @ Colorado State Sat, Oct 3 · 6:00 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Arkansas @ Texas A&M Sat, Oct 3 · 7:00 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
10BYU @ TCU Sat, Oct 3 · 7:00 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
UTSA @ Rice Sat, Oct 3 · 7:00 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina Sat, Oct 3 · 7:00 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
UL Monroe @ South Alabama Sat, Oct 3 · 7:00 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
12Texas Tech @ Colorado Sat, Oct 3 · 7:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
4Miami @ Clemson Sat, Oct 3 · 7:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Washington @ 18USC Sat, Oct 3 · 7:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Utah State @ 22Boise State Sat, Oct 3 · 7:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Temple @ South Florida Sat, Oct 3 · 7:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Army @ Louisiana Tech Sat, Oct 3 · 7:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
6Indiana @ Rutgers Sat, Oct 3 · 8:00 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Arkansas State @ Louisiana Sat, Oct 3 · 8:00 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Fresno State @ Washington State Sat, Oct 3 · 9:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Baylor @ Arizona State Sat, Oct 3 · 10:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Texas State @ San Diego State Sat, Oct 3 · 10:30 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
Cincinnati @ Arizona Sat, Oct 3 · 11:00 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
San José State @ Hawai'i Sat, Oct 3 · 11:59 PM ET
🔒 There's a pick for this game. All-Access shows it in full, free this season.
McNeese @ 11LSU Sat, Oct 3 · 7:45 PM ET
No pick yet: picks are made once the lines are posted.
The StatGrades Formula rates every team in points against an average FBS team on a neutral field, fitted to every game's closing line and final margin this season (a result never counts as more than 20 points better or worse than its line), with older games counting less and last season fading out by midseason. It adds about 2.5 points for home field. Games against FCS teams get no pick. When a line has moved 2.5 points or more since it opened, which usually means news it can't see, it keeps only a quarter of its disagreement on that game. It takes the side of whatever gap remains. On each card the Gap is that difference in points against the books' live number, and its top call is whichever of its two gaps stands out more against its usual differences with the market that week. It gives no confidence rating: a big gap is a measurement, not a promise.
StatGrades AI picks every game with a ranked team. It reads the lines and where they opened, both teams' results and closing lines, their play-by-play efficiency against FBS opponents, their best players' grades, the formula's call, and a fresh search of established outlets, then writes its own call and lists the articles it read under the pick. Its Confidence is its own, in words: a coin-flip lean (1 of 5), a lean (2), a solid edge (3), a strong edge (4) when several independent reasons agree, and rare (5). Most games get a 1 or 2; we don't inflate. The Best Bets of the Week have a bar: the AI's needs at least a solid edge (3 of 5) and the Formula's a gap of at least 3 points; otherwise that side passes. Early in the season, while a team has played fewer than 4 FBS games, an efficiency gap on its own never earns more than a lean.
Who wins on each card is the picker's own chance of each team winning outright and its projected score; the thinner bar under it is the sportsbooks' chance from their moneylines, with their cut removed. The Best Bets of the Week freeze theirs when they lock.