NBA Fantasy · How it works
How We Project Every Player, Every Night.
One projected stat line per player per game, scored three ways. Tested on two full seasons before it went live, with the rules written down first.
The projection
- Minutes. A blend of his season average, his last 10 games and his last 3. Then his team's projected minutes are shared out again over the players expected to play, so when a starter sits, his teammates' minutes go up.
- Rates. Per minute, for points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, threes, turnovers, and shots and free throws made and taken. This season is blended with last season, so a hot week doesn't swing him too far.
- Tonight's game. How much of each stat the opponent gives up compared with the league, and a small edge at home.
- Scoring. That one line is scored for points leagues (ESPN's standard), for category leagues (nine z-scores against the players a 12-team league rosters) and for DraftKings, double-double and triple-double bonuses included.
Who plays comes from ESPN's injury report: out means no projection; day-to-day counts at a 75% chance of playing. That 75% is a set number, not a fitted one, because past injury statuses aren't on record to fit it to.
The test
Before any projection reached this site, we ran it over every regular-season game from 2021-22 to 2025-26, each night projected only from earlier games. The settings were tuned on 2021-22 to 2023-24; 2024-25 and 2025-26 were scored once, after. The bar, written down first: beat the better of each player's own season average and last-10 average by at least 3%, in both test seasons.
Result: passed. 5.3% closer to what happened than the better average, over 37,229 player-games.
| Average miss, DraftKings points | Our projection | Season average | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 7.96 | 8.47 | 8.42 |
| 2025-26 | 7.86 | 8.37 | 8.29 |
Category by category (average miss per game, lower is better):
| Stat | Ours | Season avg | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 4.893 | 5.103 | 5.103 |
| FG made | 1.877 | 1.949 | 1.958 |
| FG attempted | 2.852 | 3.069 | 3.027 |
| 3-pointers | 0.985 | 0.992 | 1.009 |
| FT made | 1.485 | 1.496 | 1.511 |
| FT attempted | 1.777 | 1.795 | 1.813 |
| Rebounds | 1.976 | 2.034 | 2.054 |
| Assists | 1.456 | 1.498 | 1.513 |
| Steals | 0.786 | 0.789 | 0.805 |
| Blocks | 0.559 | 0.558 | 0.565 |
| Turnovers | 0.969 | 0.987 | 1.002 |
It beat both averages in 8 of 9 categories (blocks were a tie). The range on each card, from a bad night to a great one, held the real score in 80.2% of games, against the 80% it aims for. Minutes were off by 4.4 a game on average, against 5.2 for his season average.
What it doesn't know
- Late scratches after the last update. We refresh every 30 minutes on game days; check the injury report right before lock.
- Betting lines. A likely blowout cuts starters' minutes, and we don't use the spread yet.
- Coaches' rotation changes until they show up in a game or two.