Fantasy · Week 6 · Start or sit
Josh Downs or Luther Burden III?
Our week 6 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (9.2 vs 9.4). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Luther Burden III (51%).
Josh Downs outscores Luther Burden III 49% of the time; Luther Burden III 51%.
WR, IND vs TEN
9.2 projected PPR points
Likely range 4–16 · WR30 this week · Flex
Flex option. Tyler Warren out: more work to go around (about +1.4 points).
WR, CHI at ATL
9.4 projected PPR points
Likely range 4–16 · WR28 this week · Flex
Flex option. CHI's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
Side by side
| Josh Downs | Luther Burden III | |
|---|---|---|
| 9.2 | Projected points | 9.4 |
| 3.7 | Floor (a bad day) | 3.8 |
| 15.8 | Ceiling (a big day) | 16.2 |
| TEN +14% | Matchup | ATL +12% |
| ~25 pts | Team's expected score | ~27 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Steady | Recent form | Steady |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Josh Downs's game is in progress, so the decision may already be locked.
Luther Burden III's game is in progress, so the decision may already be locked.
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.