Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
Aaron Rodgers or Drake Maye?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (16.6 vs 16.2). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Aaron Rodgers (51%).
Aaron Rodgers outscores Drake Maye 51% of the time; Drake Maye 49%.
QB, PIT vs IND
16.6 projected PPR points
Likely range 9–26 · QB9 this week · Start
Start. Scored 22 points last game against a typical 12.6 (trending up).
QB, NE vs LV
16.2 projected PPR points
Likely range 8–26 · QB10 this week · Start
Start. Scored 26.2 points last game against a typical 18.5 (trending up).
Side by side
| Aaron Rodgers | Drake Maye | |
|---|---|---|
| 16.6 | Projected points | 16.2 |
| 8.6 | Floor (a bad day) | 8.4 |
| 26.2 | Ceiling (a big day) | 25.5 |
| IND +10% | Matchup | LV -2% |
| ~23 pts | Team's expected score | ~25 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Hot ▲ | Recent form | Hot ▲ |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.